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<p>Diseases are threatening forests worldwide. In North America, white pine blister rust (WPBR) is one of the most damaging tree epidemics. To understand patterns in the current and future risk for high-elevation five-needle white pine species (High-5), we compiled data from independent studies across the western U.S. to estimate WPBR risk. Contrary to previous predictions, the future climate is not expected to reduce the prevalence of WPBR risk on High-5 species in the western U.S. The prevalence of WPBR is predicted to increase, with most distributions of the High-5 species projected to experience elevated WPBR prevalence over the next century. Temperature and moisture conditions ensure that while some newly invaded areas are projected to experience regular periods of elevated risk, others can expect intermittent episodes of high risk. Restoration in impacted areas and proactive management in regions at increased risk are warranted to ensure High-5 population sustainability and ecosystem function.</p><p></p>

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Future climate will not save high-elevation white pines

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月6日

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  • Sparkle L. Malone,
  • Anna W. Schoettle,
  • Kelly S. Burns,
  • Holly S. J. Kearns,
  • Jane E. Stewart,
  • Maria Newcomb,
  • Christy M. Cleaver

摘要

Diseases are threatening forests worldwide. In North America, white pine blister rust (WPBR) is one of the most damaging tree epidemics. To understand patterns in the current and future risk for high-elevation five-needle white pine species (High-5), we compiled data from independent studies across the western U.S. to estimate WPBR risk. Contrary to previous predictions, the future climate is not expected to reduce the prevalence of WPBR risk on High-5 species in the western U.S. The prevalence of WPBR is predicted to increase, with most distributions of the High-5 species projected to experience elevated WPBR prevalence over the next century. Temperature and moisture conditions ensure that while some newly invaded areas are projected to experience regular periods of elevated risk, others can expect intermittent episodes of high risk. Restoration in impacted areas and proactive management in regions at increased risk are warranted to ensure High-5 population sustainability and ecosystem function.