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<p>The shelf areas of the Arctic Ocean host some of the world’s most productive marine ecosystems, yet their under-ice early-season phenology and inter-trophic dynamics remain poorly understood amid rapid climate change. Addressing these knowledge gaps, we assembled a data-driven biophysical model integrating high-resolution ocean physics with biological dynamics across ice algae (<i>Nitzschia frigida</i>), Arctic copepods (<i>Calanus glacialis</i>), and fish larvae (<i>Boreogadus saida</i>, reliant on <i>C. glacialis</i> nauplii). The model accurately recreated observed spatio-temporal production and recruitment patterns and revealed how the northern Barents Sea’s unique geography and ocean-climate facilitate key habitat and phenological synchrony, yielding large-scale biological export across the bio-region. Consequently, these geographically linked multi-trophic adaptations appear highly vulnerable to climate-forced shifts—e.g., proportion of <i>C. glacialis</i> in zooplankton is reduced up to 26% per 1 °C increase—as open-water area rises and ice-associated production and habitat degrades. Our findings thus provide timely insights for anticipating ecosystem disruptions from ongoing ice loss.</p>

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Spring phenology of the Arctic Ocean shelf production system

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月14日

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  • Mats Huserbråten,
  • Frode B. Vikebø

摘要

The shelf areas of the Arctic Ocean host some of the world’s most productive marine ecosystems, yet their under-ice early-season phenology and inter-trophic dynamics remain poorly understood amid rapid climate change. Addressing these knowledge gaps, we assembled a data-driven biophysical model integrating high-resolution ocean physics with biological dynamics across ice algae (Nitzschia frigida), Arctic copepods (Calanus glacialis), and fish larvae (Boreogadus saida, reliant on C. glacialis nauplii). The model accurately recreated observed spatio-temporal production and recruitment patterns and revealed how the northern Barents Sea’s unique geography and ocean-climate facilitate key habitat and phenological synchrony, yielding large-scale biological export across the bio-region. Consequently, these geographically linked multi-trophic adaptations appear highly vulnerable to climate-forced shifts—e.g., proportion of C. glacialis in zooplankton is reduced up to 26% per 1 °C increase—as open-water area rises and ice-associated production and habitat degrades. Our findings thus provide timely insights for anticipating ecosystem disruptions from ongoing ice loss.