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<p>Climate change and land subsidence are altering relative sea levels and compounding risks across European coasts, yet vulnerability assessments at this scale remain limited. Here we integrate 100-meter Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar measurements (2019–2023) with land-cover, population, and socioeconomic data to assess physical and social dimensions of coastal exposure. Northern Europe shows uplift exceeding 5 mm per year, while subsidence is prevalent in Mediterranean regions. Wetlands experience the largest downward motion (2.3 ± 3.1 mm per year) despite covering a small share of coastal areas. Under a middle-of-the-road climate scenario for 2050, roughly 94,000 square kilometers of coastal land, nearly 25 million residents, and 8 million buildings may face inundation. Vulnerability is disproportionately elevated among older adults, marginalized populations, and economically constrained regions facing heightened exposure yet limited adaptive capacity. These findings provide a scientific basis for directing adaptation resources where physical hazards and social inequalities converge.</p>

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European coastal deformation drives unequal exposure to climate hazards

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月14日

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  • Huilin Chen,
  • Chisheng Wang,
  • Jose Fernandez,
  • Huawei Hou,
  • Ling Chang,
  • Qingquan Li

摘要

Climate change and land subsidence are altering relative sea levels and compounding risks across European coasts, yet vulnerability assessments at this scale remain limited. Here we integrate 100-meter Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar measurements (2019–2023) with land-cover, population, and socioeconomic data to assess physical and social dimensions of coastal exposure. Northern Europe shows uplift exceeding 5 mm per year, while subsidence is prevalent in Mediterranean regions. Wetlands experience the largest downward motion (2.3 ± 3.1 mm per year) despite covering a small share of coastal areas. Under a middle-of-the-road climate scenario for 2050, roughly 94,000 square kilometers of coastal land, nearly 25 million residents, and 8 million buildings may face inundation. Vulnerability is disproportionately elevated among older adults, marginalized populations, and economically constrained regions facing heightened exposure yet limited adaptive capacity. These findings provide a scientific basis for directing adaptation resources where physical hazards and social inequalities converge.