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<p>This study identifies atmospheric rivers (ARs) as key mediators linking large-scale climate teleconnections, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific-North American pattern (PNA), and Arctic Oscillation (AO), to variations in vegetation activity (NDVI) and burned area (BA) across North America. The results highlight the central role of ARs in shaping regional fire regimes and improving prospects for seasonal fire prediction. Distinct spatial and lag-dependent responses emerge: ENSO-driven precipitation promotes vegetation greening in northwestern Canada at longer lags, whereas browning dominates Alaska and northeastern Canada. The PNA exerts a dominant influence, suppressing NDVI across the eastern United States and central Canada at longer lags, while promoting greening in Alaska at shorter ones. AO effects often counter those of ENSO, driving vegetation drying in the southern United States and southwestern Canada at short lags, and in central Canada and Alaska at longer timescales. ARs exert a strong control over burned area, particularly across northern Canada and Alaska. When AR variability is incorporated, much of the fire enhancement previously attributed to teleconnection phases is reversed, indicating that AR-teleconnection interactions play a pivotal role in modulating the timing and magnitude of vegetation and fire responses across North America.</p><p></p>

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Atmospheric rivers as mediators between climate teleconnections and burned area variability in North America

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月30日

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  • Flavio Justino,
  • David H. Bromwich,
  • Carlos Gurjão

摘要

This study identifies atmospheric rivers (ARs) as key mediators linking large-scale climate teleconnections, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific-North American pattern (PNA), and Arctic Oscillation (AO), to variations in vegetation activity (NDVI) and burned area (BA) across North America. The results highlight the central role of ARs in shaping regional fire regimes and improving prospects for seasonal fire prediction. Distinct spatial and lag-dependent responses emerge: ENSO-driven precipitation promotes vegetation greening in northwestern Canada at longer lags, whereas browning dominates Alaska and northeastern Canada. The PNA exerts a dominant influence, suppressing NDVI across the eastern United States and central Canada at longer lags, while promoting greening in Alaska at shorter ones. AO effects often counter those of ENSO, driving vegetation drying in the southern United States and southwestern Canada at short lags, and in central Canada and Alaska at longer timescales. ARs exert a strong control over burned area, particularly across northern Canada and Alaska. When AR variability is incorporated, much of the fire enhancement previously attributed to teleconnection phases is reversed, indicating that AR-teleconnection interactions play a pivotal role in modulating the timing and magnitude of vegetation and fire responses across North America.