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<p>Here, we combine scenario analysis with machine learning to assess the impact of China’s carbon neutrality policy on the reduction of toxic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), as quantified by their toxic equivalency emissions (E<sub>BaPeq</sub>). Using long-term (2000–2023) energy consumption data and provincial projections to 2060, we show that national E<sub>BaPeq</sub> is expected to peak around 2027 due to policy impacts, and then fall by 45% by 2060. This peak timing proves robust to data uncertainties. However, a pronounced north-south divide persists: northern regions, constrained by coal-dependent energy systems and aluminum-smelting industries, will peak later, whereas central and southern China achieved their peaks before 2012. This regional imbalance in emission intensity per GDP may widen under certain growth pathways. We propose targeted policies—such as cross-regional technology transfer, differentiated transition roadmaps, and improved ecological compensation—to support more equitable and synergistic abatement of carbon and toxic pollutants.</p>

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China’s carbon neutrality agenda unmasks a persistent north-south divide in toxic pollutant reduction

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月19日

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  • Weiwei Wang,
  • Lu Chen,
  • Zhen Song,
  • Mengti Wang,
  • Xiaozeng Miao,
  • Wenhao Wu,
  • Zhou Shi,
  • Daohui Lin,
  • Kun Yang

摘要

Here, we combine scenario analysis with machine learning to assess the impact of China’s carbon neutrality policy on the reduction of toxic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), as quantified by their toxic equivalency emissions (EBaPeq). Using long-term (2000–2023) energy consumption data and provincial projections to 2060, we show that national EBaPeq is expected to peak around 2027 due to policy impacts, and then fall by 45% by 2060. This peak timing proves robust to data uncertainties. However, a pronounced north-south divide persists: northern regions, constrained by coal-dependent energy systems and aluminum-smelting industries, will peak later, whereas central and southern China achieved their peaks before 2012. This regional imbalance in emission intensity per GDP may widen under certain growth pathways. We propose targeted policies—such as cross-regional technology transfer, differentiated transition roadmaps, and improved ecological compensation—to support more equitable and synergistic abatement of carbon and toxic pollutants.