<p>Terrestrial vegetation, particularly forests and savannas, is vital for regulating water and carbon cycles; however, its resilience to climate change remains largely unexplored in India. Our study projects that global warming will increase the likelihood of a shift from forest to savanna-like conditions in major Indian forest regions by the late 21^st century. Between 2001 and 2020, India’s tree cover grids declined from 30% to 28%, yet we observed non-climate-driven compositional shifts, with forests increasing from 7.2% to 8.6% and savannas from 9.2% to 11.7%. Nearly half of India’s landscape exhibits forest-savanna alternative states (unistable savanna), controlled by low (high) precipitation variability and seasonality. We found expansion of the savanna by the end of the century, driven by the model-projected increase in precipitation variability. However, targeted human interventions could mitigate these effects. Hence, strategic forest conservation policies will be crucial in safeguarding India’s forest ecosystems against climate change.</p>