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<p>Amid intensifying climate urgency, decarbonizing marine economic sectors presents both a critical challenge and a pivotal opportunity in global mitigation strategies. However, systematic approaches to assessing reduction potential remain limited. Here, we developed an integrated analytical framework with statistical data and found a 28.35% increase in greenhouse gas emissions in China’s marine economic sectors during 2000–2020. The decoupling trajectory of emissions from economic growth improved during 2005–2015 but deteriorated thereafter. Energy intensity reduction offsets 81% of cumulative emission growth driven by economic expansion. Scenario comparisons indicate that adopting the sustainability pathway could constrain the emissions peak to 126.4–143.2 Mt carbon dioxide equivalent during 2022–2028, achieving dual advantages of 10–35% lower peak volumes and 3–6 years earlier than the fossil-fueled development pathway. This study establishes a transferable framework for coastal nations to align blue economy growth with Paris Agreement targets through targeted peaking strategies.</p>

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Sustainability pathways enable China’s marine economic sectors to reach a 2030 emissions peak

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月15日

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  • Song Ge,
  • Liuyue He,
  • CuiCui Feng,
  • Guanqiong Ye

摘要

Amid intensifying climate urgency, decarbonizing marine economic sectors presents both a critical challenge and a pivotal opportunity in global mitigation strategies. However, systematic approaches to assessing reduction potential remain limited. Here, we developed an integrated analytical framework with statistical data and found a 28.35% increase in greenhouse gas emissions in China’s marine economic sectors during 2000–2020. The decoupling trajectory of emissions from economic growth improved during 2005–2015 but deteriorated thereafter. Energy intensity reduction offsets 81% of cumulative emission growth driven by economic expansion. Scenario comparisons indicate that adopting the sustainability pathway could constrain the emissions peak to 126.4–143.2 Mt carbon dioxide equivalent during 2022–2028, achieving dual advantages of 10–35% lower peak volumes and 3–6 years earlier than the fossil-fueled development pathway. This study establishes a transferable framework for coastal nations to align blue economy growth with Paris Agreement targets through targeted peaking strategies.