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<p>The contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff variation have been examined in multiple individual catchments, but upstream-downstream interaction relationships remain underexplored. Here, we propose a three-tiered attribution framework to investigate the spatiotemporal patterns, underlying drivers, and upstream-downstream relationships of runoff variations in the Yellow River Basin (1952–2021). The results indicate that the longitudinal cumulative effects of climatic (ranging from −8.6% upstream to 7.1% downstream relative to the whole basin) and anthropogenic disturbance (15.2%-92.9%) factors lead to higher risks of runoff variations in downstream regions, with more pronounced seasonal fluctuations (particularly in reservoir-regulated reaches). Glaciers, lakes, and reservoirs’ storage capacities cause lagged effects of climate change and human activities on runoff variations, while simultaneously serving as critical drivers for inter-basin water resource regulation. Integrating comprehensive understanding of multi-scale hydrological variability drivers and spatial interaction mechanisms is essential for advancing adaptive river basin management and sustainable water resources allocation.</p>

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Climate change and human activities amplify runoff variability risks in lower reaches of large rivers

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月7日

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  • Ju Gao,
  • Chunhui Li,
  • Xiong Zhou,
  • Yujun Yi,
  • Xuan Wang,
  • Qiang Liu

摘要

The contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff variation have been examined in multiple individual catchments, but upstream-downstream interaction relationships remain underexplored. Here, we propose a three-tiered attribution framework to investigate the spatiotemporal patterns, underlying drivers, and upstream-downstream relationships of runoff variations in the Yellow River Basin (1952–2021). The results indicate that the longitudinal cumulative effects of climatic (ranging from −8.6% upstream to 7.1% downstream relative to the whole basin) and anthropogenic disturbance (15.2%-92.9%) factors lead to higher risks of runoff variations in downstream regions, with more pronounced seasonal fluctuations (particularly in reservoir-regulated reaches). Glaciers, lakes, and reservoirs’ storage capacities cause lagged effects of climate change and human activities on runoff variations, while simultaneously serving as critical drivers for inter-basin water resource regulation. Integrating comprehensive understanding of multi-scale hydrological variability drivers and spatial interaction mechanisms is essential for advancing adaptive river basin management and sustainable water resources allocation.