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<p>Substantial ecological ramifications of moisture stress in ecosystems is called ecological droughts, and are largely unexplored for India. Here, we investigate ecological droughts, their&#xa0;drivers and implications in Indian Summer Monsoon during 2000–2019 based on remote sensing and machine learning. Ecological droughts are increasing in the ecologically fragile pristine forests and croplands that decline vegetation health in India. Meteorological aridity (23.9%) and ocean warming (18.2%) primarily drive the ecological droughts, as suggested by the Random Forest model. Causal analysis reveals that ocean warming indirectly triggers ecological droughts in India. The human intervention in forests also leads to their degradation. The rising ecological droughts due to changing vegetation-climate-human nexus in a shifting monsoon system is a concern for sustainability, food security and climate change mitigation in India. It is thus imperative to consider the ecological repercussions&#xa0;of droughts in policy making and combat their threats through judiciously engineered nature-based solutions.</p>

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Ecological droughts increased in India with changing Indian summer monsoon and human interventions

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月28日

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  • Rahul Kashyap,
  • Jayanarayanan Kuttippurath,
  • Vikas Kumar Patel

摘要

Substantial ecological ramifications of moisture stress in ecosystems is called ecological droughts, and are largely unexplored for India. Here, we investigate ecological droughts, their drivers and implications in Indian Summer Monsoon during 2000–2019 based on remote sensing and machine learning. Ecological droughts are increasing in the ecologically fragile pristine forests and croplands that decline vegetation health in India. Meteorological aridity (23.9%) and ocean warming (18.2%) primarily drive the ecological droughts, as suggested by the Random Forest model. Causal analysis reveals that ocean warming indirectly triggers ecological droughts in India. The human intervention in forests also leads to their degradation. The rising ecological droughts due to changing vegetation-climate-human nexus in a shifting monsoon system is a concern for sustainability, food security and climate change mitigation in India. It is thus imperative to consider the ecological repercussions of droughts in policy making and combat their threats through judiciously engineered nature-based solutions.