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<p>The El Niño-Southern Oscillation is a major driver of global climate and weather variability through atmospheric teleconnections. However, the 2023/24 El Niño event, despite ranking as the fourth strongest since 1979, exhibited an unusually weak Pacific-North American pattern. Here we show that this unexpected behavior is due to anomalously weak tropical Pacific rainfall changes, a key driver of teleconnections associated with El Niño. Through analysis of observational data during 1979–2023 and performing atmospheric model experiments, we further reveal that the suppressed tropical Pacific rainfall changes were caused by unprecedented warming in the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans in 2023. This warming, partly driven by long-term trends exceeding those in the tropical Pacific, has amplified the influence of these extra-Pacific basins on El Niño dynamics. Notably, current climate models fail to reproduce this interbasin warming contrast, highlighting critical challenges in their ability to predict future climate impacts associated with El Niño events.</p>

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The 2023/24 El Niño event exhibited unusually weak extratropical teleconnections

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月28日

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  • Lei Zhang,
  • Yanying Chen,
  • Kristopher B. Karnauskas,
  • Chunzai Wang,
  • Matthew Collins,
  • Xi Luo

摘要

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation is a major driver of global climate and weather variability through atmospheric teleconnections. However, the 2023/24 El Niño event, despite ranking as the fourth strongest since 1979, exhibited an unusually weak Pacific-North American pattern. Here we show that this unexpected behavior is due to anomalously weak tropical Pacific rainfall changes, a key driver of teleconnections associated with El Niño. Through analysis of observational data during 1979–2023 and performing atmospheric model experiments, we further reveal that the suppressed tropical Pacific rainfall changes were caused by unprecedented warming in the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans in 2023. This warming, partly driven by long-term trends exceeding those in the tropical Pacific, has amplified the influence of these extra-Pacific basins on El Niño dynamics. Notably, current climate models fail to reproduce this interbasin warming contrast, highlighting critical challenges in their ability to predict future climate impacts associated with El Niño events.