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<p>Forecasting catastrophic failures that threaten life and property remains a formidable challenge. A major hurdle lies in the intermittent rupture dynamics of heterogeneous materials. This erratic pattern challenges conventional time-to-failure predictive models, which typically assume a smooth, monotonic power law acceleration. Here, we propose a unified failure model based on a log-periodic power law that encapsulates the intermittent acceleration-deceleration sequences within a single framework. We validate this unified model using a global dataset of 109 historical geohazard events including landslides, rockbursts, glacier breakoffs, and volcanic eruptions, spanning a century and across seven continents. We show that our model significantly outperforms the conventional approach, offering a robust and versatile framework for describing the complex rupture behavior of diverse geomaterials such as rock, soil, and ice at the site scale. This unified perspective not only broadens the model’s applicability across diverse geohazards but also highlights its potential to enhance early warning systems.</p>

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Unified failure model for landslides, rockbursts, glaciers, and volcanoes

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年5月20日

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  • Qinghua Lei,
  • Didier Sornette

摘要

Forecasting catastrophic failures that threaten life and property remains a formidable challenge. A major hurdle lies in the intermittent rupture dynamics of heterogeneous materials. This erratic pattern challenges conventional time-to-failure predictive models, which typically assume a smooth, monotonic power law acceleration. Here, we propose a unified failure model based on a log-periodic power law that encapsulates the intermittent acceleration-deceleration sequences within a single framework. We validate this unified model using a global dataset of 109 historical geohazard events including landslides, rockbursts, glacier breakoffs, and volcanic eruptions, spanning a century and across seven continents. We show that our model significantly outperforms the conventional approach, offering a robust and versatile framework for describing the complex rupture behavior of diverse geomaterials such as rock, soil, and ice at the site scale. This unified perspective not only broadens the model’s applicability across diverse geohazards but also highlights its potential to enhance early warning systems.