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<p>Rice paddies are essential to global food security but are significant contributors to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, particularly methane (CH<sub>4</sub>), a potent driver of climate change. Here, using three independent approaches—a data-driven model, a process-based ecosystem model and a meta-analysis of over 1,255 field experiment sites—we estimate that net GHG emissions from global rice paddies approximately doubled from 1961–1980 to 2001–2020, driven primarily by a 52% increase in soil CO<sub>2</sub> emissions and a 44% rise in soil CH<sub>4</sub> emissions. For the most recent decade (2010s), global rice paddies emitted 1,090 ± 350 Tg of CO<sub>2</sub>-equivalent emissions (CO<sub>2</sub>e) per year, with an emission intensity of 0.33 ± 0.08 MgCO<sub>2</sub>e per million kilocalories. Rice area expansion was the largest contributor to net GHG increases, with secondary drivers being the widespread adoption of intensified residue incorporation. East Asia experienced renewed CH<sub>4</sub> increases linked to excessive straw incorporation, while Africa emerged as an important CH<sub>4</sub> hotspot because of rapid paddy expansion. Mitigation strategies such as reducing excessive residue and nitrogen inputs alongside the adoption of optimal tillage and irrigation could reduce future total net GHG emissions by ~10% without yield loss. However, achieving further reductions will require stronger climate-smart policy frameworks.</p>

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Global rice paddy greenhouse gas emissions have doubled over the past six decades driven by area expansion and intensified residue incorporation

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月22日

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  • Jingting Zhang,
  • Hanqin Tian,
  • Xin-Zhong Liang,
  • Josep G. Canadell,
  • Philippe Ciais,
  • Robert B. Jackson,
  • Zutao Ouyang,
  • Jingfang Zhang,
  • Shufan Pan

摘要

Rice paddies are essential to global food security but are significant contributors to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, particularly methane (CH4), a potent driver of climate change. Here, using three independent approaches—a data-driven model, a process-based ecosystem model and a meta-analysis of over 1,255 field experiment sites—we estimate that net GHG emissions from global rice paddies approximately doubled from 1961–1980 to 2001–2020, driven primarily by a 52% increase in soil CO2 emissions and a 44% rise in soil CH4 emissions. For the most recent decade (2010s), global rice paddies emitted 1,090 ± 350 Tg of CO2-equivalent emissions (CO2e) per year, with an emission intensity of 0.33 ± 0.08 MgCO2e per million kilocalories. Rice area expansion was the largest contributor to net GHG increases, with secondary drivers being the widespread adoption of intensified residue incorporation. East Asia experienced renewed CH4 increases linked to excessive straw incorporation, while Africa emerged as an important CH4 hotspot because of rapid paddy expansion. Mitigation strategies such as reducing excessive residue and nitrogen inputs alongside the adoption of optimal tillage and irrigation could reduce future total net GHG emissions by ~10% without yield loss. However, achieving further reductions will require stronger climate-smart policy frameworks.