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<p>Global crop productivity heavily relies on snow availability, which has declined in many snow-dependent regions due to warmer winters and intensified snow droughts. However, our understanding of crop yield sensitivity to snow droughts remains limited. Here we show that winter wheat croplands have experienced an increase in snow drought frequency (5.3–6.7% more events per decade) from 1960 to 2020. To assess the sensitivity of winter wheat yield to snow droughts, we utilized explainable machine learning, gridded yield datasets and the standardized snow water equivalent index from 1982 to 2016. Our findings reveal a significant increase in yield sensitivity to snow water equivalent index over 25% of Northern Hemisphere winter wheat croplands. Elevated fertilizer application rates, increased freezing stress and slightly decreased precipitation are identified as primary drivers amplifying this sensitivity. These findings highlight the increasing vulnerability of crop systems to snow droughts, which is critical for guiding agricultural adaptation in a warming future with reduced snowpack.</p>

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Winter wheat yield sensitivity to snow drought is increasing across the Northern Hemisphere

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月6日

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  • Huijiao Chen,
  • Shuo Wang,
  • Peng Zhu,
  • Amir AghaKouchak

摘要

Global crop productivity heavily relies on snow availability, which has declined in many snow-dependent regions due to warmer winters and intensified snow droughts. However, our understanding of crop yield sensitivity to snow droughts remains limited. Here we show that winter wheat croplands have experienced an increase in snow drought frequency (5.3–6.7% more events per decade) from 1960 to 2020. To assess the sensitivity of winter wheat yield to snow droughts, we utilized explainable machine learning, gridded yield datasets and the standardized snow water equivalent index from 1982 to 2016. Our findings reveal a significant increase in yield sensitivity to snow water equivalent index over 25% of Northern Hemisphere winter wheat croplands. Elevated fertilizer application rates, increased freezing stress and slightly decreased precipitation are identified as primary drivers amplifying this sensitivity. These findings highlight the increasing vulnerability of crop systems to snow droughts, which is critical for guiding agricultural adaptation in a warming future with reduced snowpack.