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<p>Paratransit, or flexible, demand-responsive public transport, dominates mobility in sub-Saharan Africa, yet its electrification has remained largely absent from sustainability debates. Using high-resolution tracking data from 671 minibus taxis in Cape Town’s BlueDot programme, we evaluate the feasibility, energy system impacts and environmental outcomes of electrifying this sector. The government-led BlueDot programme equipped taxis with trackers to monitor driving and reward safe driving. Using this tracking data, we demonstrate that electrification is technically viable under current mobility patterns, provided that both depot and home charging are available; however, fast charging offers little additional benefit. However, charging introduces pronounced evening load peaks that coincide with existing grid stress, underscoring the importance of managed charging strategies and expanded renewable supply. Electrification does not immediately reduce greenhouse gas emissions under South Africa’s coal-heavy grid, but it does eliminate exhaust pipe particulate matter, with substantial implications for urban health. Equity considerations are central: drivers and operators with less access to home charging face lower viability and greater disruption. Our findings demonstrate that with the right infrastructure and planning, electrification of African paratransit can deliver cleaner air and lay the foundations for a just and sustainable mobility transition.</p>

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A sustainable transition to electric minibus taxis in Cape Town’s paratransit

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月13日

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  • M. J. Booysen,
  • B. G. Pretorius,
  • J. T. Sello

摘要

Paratransit, or flexible, demand-responsive public transport, dominates mobility in sub-Saharan Africa, yet its electrification has remained largely absent from sustainability debates. Using high-resolution tracking data from 671 minibus taxis in Cape Town’s BlueDot programme, we evaluate the feasibility, energy system impacts and environmental outcomes of electrifying this sector. The government-led BlueDot programme equipped taxis with trackers to monitor driving and reward safe driving. Using this tracking data, we demonstrate that electrification is technically viable under current mobility patterns, provided that both depot and home charging are available; however, fast charging offers little additional benefit. However, charging introduces pronounced evening load peaks that coincide with existing grid stress, underscoring the importance of managed charging strategies and expanded renewable supply. Electrification does not immediately reduce greenhouse gas emissions under South Africa’s coal-heavy grid, but it does eliminate exhaust pipe particulate matter, with substantial implications for urban health. Equity considerations are central: drivers and operators with less access to home charging face lower viability and greater disruption. Our findings demonstrate that with the right infrastructure and planning, electrification of African paratransit can deliver cleaner air and lay the foundations for a just and sustainable mobility transition.