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<p>As electric vehicle adoption accelerates globally, fuel tax revenues decline, exposing government budgets without a proposed replacement tax on electric vehicles. We estimate fuel tax transition exposure across 168 countries, demonstrating that relative exposure, in percentage of total government revenues, varies substantially by income level. Our analysis finds that global public revenues from fuel taxes totalled approximately US$900 billion in 2023. Crucially, we show that lower-income countries face disproportionately high exposure, experience frequent debt crises and possess limited institutional capacity to respond, potentially necessitating international support.</p>

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The electric vehicle transition and vanishing fuel tax revenues

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月2日

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  • Bessie Noll,
  • Tobias S. Schmidt,
  • Florian Egli

摘要

As electric vehicle adoption accelerates globally, fuel tax revenues decline, exposing government budgets without a proposed replacement tax on electric vehicles. We estimate fuel tax transition exposure across 168 countries, demonstrating that relative exposure, in percentage of total government revenues, varies substantially by income level. Our analysis finds that global public revenues from fuel taxes totalled approximately US$900 billion in 2023. Crucially, we show that lower-income countries face disproportionately high exposure, experience frequent debt crises and possess limited institutional capacity to respond, potentially necessitating international support.