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<p>Ozone-depleting halocarbons (OD-HCs) are potent greenhouse gases but can also cause radiative cooling by depleting stratospheric ozone. Previously, global climate models revealed substantial OD-HC-driven warming in the second half of the 20th century, with only partial offset by ozone loss. More recent estimates of OD-HC net effective radiative forcing (ERF), however, have raised the possibility of much larger cancellation from ozone depletion, questioning the climatic co-benefits of the Montreal Protocol, which led to the worldwide phase-out of OD-HCs. Here, analyzing several comprehensive chemistry-climate models with realistic stratospheric ozone depletion, we confirm that the OD-HC net ERF is extremely likely positive, with a best estimate of ~ 0.2 W m<sup>−2</sup> for 2014, consistent with earlier estimates showing only a partial offset by ozone depletion. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that, had OD-HC emissions not occurred in the second half of the 20th century, global warming during that period would have been around 20% lower, confirming the critical co-benefit of the Montreal Protocol in mitigating global warming.</p>

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Confirming the substantial contribution of ozone-depleting halocarbon emissions to global warming during the second half of the 20th century

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月30日

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  • M. Friedel,
  • G. Chiodo,
  • K. Weber,
  • L. M. Polvani,
  • J. S. Daniel,
  • N. L. Abraham,
  • S. M. Davis,
  • M. Deushi,
  • N. Oshima,
  • L. W. Horowitz,
  • J. F. Lamarque,
  • J. Keeble,
  • L. Nazarenko,
  • C. Orbe

摘要

Ozone-depleting halocarbons (OD-HCs) are potent greenhouse gases but can also cause radiative cooling by depleting stratospheric ozone. Previously, global climate models revealed substantial OD-HC-driven warming in the second half of the 20th century, with only partial offset by ozone loss. More recent estimates of OD-HC net effective radiative forcing (ERF), however, have raised the possibility of much larger cancellation from ozone depletion, questioning the climatic co-benefits of the Montreal Protocol, which led to the worldwide phase-out of OD-HCs. Here, analyzing several comprehensive chemistry-climate models with realistic stratospheric ozone depletion, we confirm that the OD-HC net ERF is extremely likely positive, with a best estimate of ~ 0.2 W m−2 for 2014, consistent with earlier estimates showing only a partial offset by ozone depletion. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that, had OD-HC emissions not occurred in the second half of the 20th century, global warming during that period would have been around 20% lower, confirming the critical co-benefit of the Montreal Protocol in mitigating global warming.