Scholarlink

<p>Synoptic weather systems play a crucial role in transporting moisture to Antarctica. Climate models project significant changes in these systems, including a wintertime intensification and a summertime poleward shift, with implications for Antarctic ice mass balance. Our analysis of CMIP6 model output shows synoptic moisture fluxes across the Antarctic Circle increasing by 2–6% per decade under high-emission scenarios, accounting for 24% of winter and 93% of summer total moisture transport trends. This increase is mainly associated with enhanced eddy moisture anomalies rather than stronger eddy wind anomalies that are often used to gauge storm track activity. Eddy-driven moisture variability also accounts for a substantial fraction of inter-model uncertainty in future projections. Furthermore, using a large-ensemble approach, we show that differences between reanalysis and multi-model mean externally forced trends could possibly be due to natural climatic variability, while potential model biases cannot be excluded.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Projected and historical amplification of moisture fluxes towards Antarctica by synoptic eddies

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月2日

查看全文
  • Patrick Martineau,
  • Hua Lu,
  • Thomas J. Bracegirdle

摘要

Synoptic weather systems play a crucial role in transporting moisture to Antarctica. Climate models project significant changes in these systems, including a wintertime intensification and a summertime poleward shift, with implications for Antarctic ice mass balance. Our analysis of CMIP6 model output shows synoptic moisture fluxes across the Antarctic Circle increasing by 2–6% per decade under high-emission scenarios, accounting for 24% of winter and 93% of summer total moisture transport trends. This increase is mainly associated with enhanced eddy moisture anomalies rather than stronger eddy wind anomalies that are often used to gauge storm track activity. Eddy-driven moisture variability also accounts for a substantial fraction of inter-model uncertainty in future projections. Furthermore, using a large-ensemble approach, we show that differences between reanalysis and multi-model mean externally forced trends could possibly be due to natural climatic variability, while potential model biases cannot be excluded.