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<p>China’s rapidly expanding cooling sector is a major driver of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and rising electricity demand, with profound implications for national decarbonization goals and global climate targets. Using a bottom-up, scenario-based model, we quantify direct refrigerant-related and indirect energy-related emissions across four subsectors: room air conditioning, mobile air conditioning, commercial air conditioning, and cold-chain refrigeration. Compared with a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario for 2022–2060, an accelerated transition to low-GWP refrigerants and enhanced energy efficiency (ATE) is projected to reduce cumulative HFC consumption by 12.6 ± 0.4 Gt CO<sub>2</sub>-eq, with 70% of these reductions achieved through compliance with the Kigali Amendment compliance and the remainder from faster adoption. The ATE pathway would also avoid 4.1 Gt CO<sub>2</sub>— ~ 28% of total avoided GHG emissions—along with substantial reductions in SO<sub>2</sub> (1.8 Gt), NO<sub>x</sub> (3.7 Gt), and PM<sub>2.5</sub> (0.3 Gt), lowering global mean temperature by up to 0.015°C by 2060. These results demonstrate the additional climate benefits achievable when efficiency improvements are implemented alongside Kigali-compliant refrigerant transitions.</p>

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Cooling China without warming the planet: climate and co-benefits of HFC phase-down

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月16日

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  • Pengnan Jiang,
  • Pallav Purohit,
  • Xueying Xiang,
  • Ziwei Chen,
  • Fuli Bai,
  • Xingchen Zhao,
  • Xu Zhang,
  • Jianxin Hu

摘要

China’s rapidly expanding cooling sector is a major driver of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and rising electricity demand, with profound implications for national decarbonization goals and global climate targets. Using a bottom-up, scenario-based model, we quantify direct refrigerant-related and indirect energy-related emissions across four subsectors: room air conditioning, mobile air conditioning, commercial air conditioning, and cold-chain refrigeration. Compared with a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario for 2022–2060, an accelerated transition to low-GWP refrigerants and enhanced energy efficiency (ATE) is projected to reduce cumulative HFC consumption by 12.6 ± 0.4 Gt CO2-eq, with 70% of these reductions achieved through compliance with the Kigali Amendment compliance and the remainder from faster adoption. The ATE pathway would also avoid 4.1 Gt CO2— ~ 28% of total avoided GHG emissions—along with substantial reductions in SO2 (1.8 Gt), NOx (3.7 Gt), and PM2.5 (0.3 Gt), lowering global mean temperature by up to 0.015°C by 2060. These results demonstrate the additional climate benefits achievable when efficiency improvements are implemented alongside Kigali-compliant refrigerant transitions.