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<p>Whether the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) warming pattern under global warming resembles El Niño or La Niña remains uncertain, partly due to unrealistically simulated El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) asymmetry in climate models. Here, using a newly defined normalized mean state framework, we isolate the ENSO asymmetry-related rectification effect and find that traditional methods underestimate El Niño-like warming by 14.5% ± 11.9% because ENSO asymmetry weakens under global warming. This asymmetry reduction induces La Niña-like influences through cloud radiative and atmospheric convection processes in the equatorial western Pacific. The contribution of ENSO rectification to warming patterns correlates with simulated historical ENSO asymmetry in climate models. These findings clarify how ENSO nonlinearity shapes tropical Pacific warming patterns and provide an improved framework for climate projections.</p>

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El Niño-like warming underestimated in a warmer climate due to ENSO rectification effect

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月17日

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  • Yue Chen,
  • Ping Huang,
  • Jun Ying

摘要

Whether the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) warming pattern under global warming resembles El Niño or La Niña remains uncertain, partly due to unrealistically simulated El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) asymmetry in climate models. Here, using a newly defined normalized mean state framework, we isolate the ENSO asymmetry-related rectification effect and find that traditional methods underestimate El Niño-like warming by 14.5% ± 11.9% because ENSO asymmetry weakens under global warming. This asymmetry reduction induces La Niña-like influences through cloud radiative and atmospheric convection processes in the equatorial western Pacific. The contribution of ENSO rectification to warming patterns correlates with simulated historical ENSO asymmetry in climate models. These findings clarify how ENSO nonlinearity shapes tropical Pacific warming patterns and provide an improved framework for climate projections.