<p>Exposure to concurrent heatwave and ozone pollution events poses a great threat to the health burden. Yet the impacts of future warming on such compound extremes and the associated health risks remain unclear. Here, using dynamic downscaling techniques and multi-model ensembles, we estimate excess deaths attributed to heatwave-ozone compound extremes from climate change under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). We find that, driven by future climate change, ozone pollution events in China are projected to grow by 58% by the middle of the century under SSP3-7.0, half of which are also heatwave days. Consequently, the heatwave-ozone compound event exposure rises by a factor of two, causing an additional 61,600 deaths nationwide. In highly polluted regions, such compound events outweigh single events by dominating the additional mortality from climate-induced increases in heat and ozone extremes. Our results emphasize the challenges of compound extremes and underscore the urgency of climate action and improved preparedness.</p>

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Future warming exacerbates heatwave-ozone compound extremes in China

  • Mengshi Cui,
  • Chaopeng Hong,
  • Wenyu Liu,
  • Kebin He,
  • Qiang Zhang

摘要

Exposure to concurrent heatwave and ozone pollution events poses a great threat to the health burden. Yet the impacts of future warming on such compound extremes and the associated health risks remain unclear. Here, using dynamic downscaling techniques and multi-model ensembles, we estimate excess deaths attributed to heatwave-ozone compound extremes from climate change under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). We find that, driven by future climate change, ozone pollution events in China are projected to grow by 58% by the middle of the century under SSP3-7.0, half of which are also heatwave days. Consequently, the heatwave-ozone compound event exposure rises by a factor of two, causing an additional 61,600 deaths nationwide. In highly polluted regions, such compound events outweigh single events by dominating the additional mortality from climate-induced increases in heat and ozone extremes. Our results emphasize the challenges of compound extremes and underscore the urgency of climate action and improved preparedness.