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<p>Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of temperature change is crucial for addressing global warming, particularly as regional climate systems may have passed critical tipping points. Here, we examine temperature change characteristics and influencing factors across the Eurasia from 1901 to 2022. We identify a significant abrupt temperature increase in the 1980s, revealing asynchronous warming patterns across the continent. Abrupt warming occurred after 1970 at 93.6% of Eurasian grid points, with 78.0% concentrated between 1970 and 1990. This abrupt warming is driven largely by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), explaining 58% of the variation. Early warming hotspots appeared on the Mongolian Plateau and Central Asia, spreading outward. The most significant warming occurs in middle and high latitudes. Regional differences in hydrothermal conditions and cloud cover lead to varying warming timings across Eurasia. Additionally, the warming exhibits significant seasonal asymmetry, with winter warming predominantly driving the abrupt temperature increase, accounting for 45% of the variance. This is driven by the dominant positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) in winter.</p>

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Asynchronous abrupt warming across Eurasia since the 1980s

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月25日

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  • Yansong Li,
  • Weili Duan,
  • Zhenzhong Zeng,
  • Shan Zou,
  • Xu Wang,
  • Ziyang Zhu,
  • Enzhao Zhu,
  • Jiayou Wang

摘要

Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of temperature change is crucial for addressing global warming, particularly as regional climate systems may have passed critical tipping points. Here, we examine temperature change characteristics and influencing factors across the Eurasia from 1901 to 2022. We identify a significant abrupt temperature increase in the 1980s, revealing asynchronous warming patterns across the continent. Abrupt warming occurred after 1970 at 93.6% of Eurasian grid points, with 78.0% concentrated between 1970 and 1990. This abrupt warming is driven largely by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), explaining 58% of the variation. Early warming hotspots appeared on the Mongolian Plateau and Central Asia, spreading outward. The most significant warming occurs in middle and high latitudes. Regional differences in hydrothermal conditions and cloud cover lead to varying warming timings across Eurasia. Additionally, the warming exhibits significant seasonal asymmetry, with winter warming predominantly driving the abrupt temperature increase, accounting for 45% of the variance. This is driven by the dominant positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) in winter.