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<p>The ‘emergence year’ <i>Ye</i> is defined as the start of a future period during which precipitation consistently exceeds the maximum value of the past historical period. Emergence years of future anthropogenic changes in annual average precipitation (<i>Pav</i>) and annual maximum 1-day precipitation (<i>P1d</i>) were projected using high-resolution global atmospheric models with 20-km and 60-km grid-size for the period 1950-2099. A total of 10,000 randomized time series representing the time evolution of decadal natural variability enabled us to directly evaluate estimated frequency distributions (EDFs) on a grid point basis. <i>Ye</i> for both <i>Pav</i> and <i>P1d</i> generally occur earlier at high latitudes than they are elsewhere, and <i>Ye</i>(<i>P1d</i>) is generally later than <i>Ye</i>(<i>Pav</i>). <i>Ye</i>(<i>P1d</i>) covers a larger area than <i>Ye</i>(<i>Pav</i>) does and <i>Ye</i>(<i>P1d</i>) may occur earlier in the tropics and mid-latitudes than <i>Ye</i>(<i>Pav</i>). <i>Ye</i> occurs earlier in scenarios with higher anthropogenic emissions than in scenarios with lower emissions.</p>

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Emergence of anthropogenic precipitation changes in a future warmer climate

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月3日

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  • Shoji Kusunoki,
  • Ryo Mizuta,
  • Masahiro Hosaka

摘要

The ‘emergence year’ Ye is defined as the start of a future period during which precipitation consistently exceeds the maximum value of the past historical period. Emergence years of future anthropogenic changes in annual average precipitation (Pav) and annual maximum 1-day precipitation (P1d) were projected using high-resolution global atmospheric models with 20-km and 60-km grid-size for the period 1950-2099. A total of 10,000 randomized time series representing the time evolution of decadal natural variability enabled us to directly evaluate estimated frequency distributions (EDFs) on a grid point basis. Ye for both Pav and P1d generally occur earlier at high latitudes than they are elsewhere, and Ye(P1d) is generally later than Ye(Pav). Ye(P1d) covers a larger area than Ye(Pav) does and Ye(P1d) may occur earlier in the tropics and mid-latitudes than Ye(Pav). Ye occurs earlier in scenarios with higher anthropogenic emissions than in scenarios with lower emissions.