Assessing indirect rebound effects of China’s household energy consumption with input-output and redistribution models
摘要
Using an input-output model and four redistribution scenarios, this paper estimates the indirect rebound effects of household energy consumption in China from 2002 to 2017. The results show that, under the income elasticity and proportional expenditure scenarios, the indirect rebound effects for electricity and coal are about 10%, making them the highest, while those for gasoline and natural gas are less than 3%. A comparative analysis between urban and rural areas reveals that the indirect rebound effects have generally shifted from being higher for urban households to being higher for rural households in recent years. Sensitivity analysis shows that as direct rebound effects increase, indirect rebound effects decrease. The estimated values for the income elasticity, proportional, and best scenarios remain small and stable, while the value for the worst scenario is more than three times higher. This paper highlights the differences between the indirect rebound effects of household energy consumption in China’s urban and rural areas across different energy types, which may have important theoretical implications for optimizing energy consumption structures and energy conservation policies in China.