Health risk assessment of exposure to metal fumes among welders under various seasonal conditions: a study based on Monte Carlo simulation
摘要
Exposure to welding fumes can be associated with the significant effects on human health due to their systemic toxicity and carcinogenic potential. In industrial settings like oil refineries, seasonal meteorological factors may significantly influence the dispersion and concentration of these fumes. This study was conducted to evaluate the effect of seasonal variations on exposure to metal fume and to estimate the associated non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks using a robust simulation-based approach. In this cross-sectional study, 90 personal air samples were collected from 30 welders during the summer and winter seasons in a southern Iranian oil refinery. Concentrations of Co, Fe, Pb, Ni, and Cd were determined using atomic absorption spectrometry based on the NIOSH 7300 method. Health risks were estimated based on the USEPA health risk framework. Moreover, a Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) was performed to generate probabilistic risk distributions. The results indicated that Fe and Pb concentrations were significantly higher in summer than those in winter (p < 0.05). Whereas seasonal differences for Co, Ni, and Cd concentrations were not statistically significant. The highest airborne concentration was realted to exposure to Fe in both seasons. Deterministic assessment showed that HQ values for several metals exceeded the acceptable threshold (HQ > 1). Furthermore, the LCR for Ni, Pb, and Cd was higher than the 10−4 in a substantial percentage of the simulated population. The probabilistic analysis confirmed a high probability of risk, highlighting underestimatation of the health burden for highly exposed individuals. The results showed the considerable health risks due to inhalation exposure to metal fumes among welders in the studied refinery, particlury in summer season. These findings emphasize that occupational health programs must prioritize season-specific interventions. Practical recommendations include the implementation of high-efficiency local exhaust ventilation (LEV), the use of multi-stage respiratory protection, and the adoption of work-rotation schedules to reduce cumulative exposure. Future studies should incorporate Manganese (Mn) and electrode composition analysis to provide a more comprehensive risk profile.