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<p>Low-altitude air traffic (LAAT) management requires macroscopic models that represent interactions between regional demand and service allocation. This study develops a projected stability-analysis framework for a two-region macroscopic fundamental diagram (MFD) model with intra- and inter-regional aircraft accumulations. Regional MFDs are independently calibrated from trajectory-level agent-based microsimulation; held-out <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"><EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\:{R}^{2}\)</EquationSource></InlineEquation> values are 0.675 and 0.892. Bootstrap resampling propagates calibration uncertainty to projected region-of-attraction (RA) boundaries and areas. A variance-based Sobol analysis jointly evaluates capacity-normalized demand loading, prescribed background accumulation, and service allocation. Destination-region demand loading has the largest total-order effect in both directional projections, followed by inter-regional transfer-demand loading; their pairwise interaction is also the strongest. Service-allocation effects are smaller but non-negligible, whereas the prescribed accumulation ranges contribute little to RA-area variance. The results support comparative stability assessment, although the estimated boundaries remain scenario-specific rather than field-validated operational thresholds.</p>

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Projected region-of-attraction analysis of coupled two-region low-altitude air traffic using microsimulation-calibrated MFDs

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年8月1日

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  • Haiyan Jiang,
  • Yijia Li,
  • Haitao Liu,
  • Olga Bulatova

摘要

Low-altitude air traffic (LAAT) management requires macroscopic models that represent interactions between regional demand and service allocation. This study develops a projected stability-analysis framework for a two-region macroscopic fundamental diagram (MFD) model with intra- and inter-regional aircraft accumulations. Regional MFDs are independently calibrated from trajectory-level agent-based microsimulation; held-out \(\:{R}^{2}\) values are 0.675 and 0.892. Bootstrap resampling propagates calibration uncertainty to projected region-of-attraction (RA) boundaries and areas. A variance-based Sobol analysis jointly evaluates capacity-normalized demand loading, prescribed background accumulation, and service allocation. Destination-region demand loading has the largest total-order effect in both directional projections, followed by inter-regional transfer-demand loading; their pairwise interaction is also the strongest. Service-allocation effects are smaller but non-negligible, whereas the prescribed accumulation ranges contribute little to RA-area variance. The results support comparative stability assessment, although the estimated boundaries remain scenario-specific rather than field-validated operational thresholds.