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<p><i>Iris kuschakewiczii</i> B.Fedtsch. is a rare ornamental plant endemic to the Northern Tien Shan mountains. The analysis of the species’ distribution range is important given the declining habitat area. This study employed MaxEnt to project the distribution of <i>I. kuschakewiczii</i> under current and three future climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585) for two time periods (the 2050s and the 2090s). Prediction models showed high validity (AUC = 0.997), strong accuracy, and reliability. Moreover, key environmental variables affecting the distribution of <i>I. kuschakewiczii</i> were identified. It included Weight and Percentage of Sand (70%), Temperature Seasonality (~ 2300), and Elevation (700–1300&#xa0;m above the sea level). Highly suitable distribution areas were mainly found in the Chu-Ili Mountains (Southeastern Kazakhstan). The analysis showed that only 26.7% of the total highly suitable area is protected by reserves and nature parks, underlying the need for conservation. The recently founded Kurty Valley Important Plant Area in Kazakhstan provides a strong foundation for the scientific conservation of <i>I. kuschakewiczii</i> and other rare and endangered plants. This research provides insights into the potential dynamics of habitat distribution for the endangered <i>I. kuschakewiczii</i> and offers a basis for strengthening cooperative international conservation and sustainable management strategies in the face of climate change.</p>

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Prediction of distribution areas of the rare Iris kuschakewiczii B.Fedtsch. species across its range using the MaxEnt model

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月22日

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  • Aruzhan Alikhanova,
  • Saule Abugalieva,
  • Shyryn Almerekova,
  • Yerlan Turuspekov

摘要

Iris kuschakewiczii B.Fedtsch. is a rare ornamental plant endemic to the Northern Tien Shan mountains. The analysis of the species’ distribution range is important given the declining habitat area. This study employed MaxEnt to project the distribution of I. kuschakewiczii under current and three future climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585) for two time periods (the 2050s and the 2090s). Prediction models showed high validity (AUC = 0.997), strong accuracy, and reliability. Moreover, key environmental variables affecting the distribution of I. kuschakewiczii were identified. It included Weight and Percentage of Sand (70%), Temperature Seasonality (~ 2300), and Elevation (700–1300 m above the sea level). Highly suitable distribution areas were mainly found in the Chu-Ili Mountains (Southeastern Kazakhstan). The analysis showed that only 26.7% of the total highly suitable area is protected by reserves and nature parks, underlying the need for conservation. The recently founded Kurty Valley Important Plant Area in Kazakhstan provides a strong foundation for the scientific conservation of I. kuschakewiczii and other rare and endangered plants. This research provides insights into the potential dynamics of habitat distribution for the endangered I. kuschakewiczii and offers a basis for strengthening cooperative international conservation and sustainable management strategies in the face of climate change.