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<p>Livestock predation by carnivores drives global human-carnivore conflict. Non-lethal strategies like Livestock Guardian Dogs (LGDs) prove effective, yet their interactions with biophysical factors (e.g., habitats) and ecological variables (e.g., carnivore/prey abundance) remain poorly understood. This study evaluated whether LGD presence reduces sheep predation by <i>Lycalopex</i> foxes and how LGDs interact with biophysical/ecological variables shaping predation risk patterns, using Chilean Patagonia ranches as a model system. Using 2017–2018 predation data, we identified key landscape and species variables influencing risk (vegetation composition, nearest distance to road/farmstead, fox/hare abundance, LGD presence) via logistic regression on kill and random points from five ranches (two with LGDs, three without). We analyzed 94 fresh sheep carcasses killed by foxes: 26 in LGD ranches (0.77 sheep/ha) vs. 68 without LGDs (1.34 sheep/ha). Fox predation was lower with LGDs (χ<sup>2</sup> = 4.90, <i>p</i> = 0.026). Models showed negative shrubland cover association and LGD × bareland × hare abundance interactions. With LGDs, risk declined with bareland and hare abundance; without LGDs, risk was unrelated to bareland but increased sharply with hare abundance. Mean predation probability was 0.26 (± 0.001), peaking at 0.39 (± 0.07) without LGDs. By mitigating risk factors, LGDs enhance landscape safety for livestock, reduce economic losses and lethal mesocarnivores control, supporting carnivore conservation in livestock-dominated landscapes.</p>

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Livestock guardian dogs create safer landscapes for sheep by reducing fox predation risk attributes

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月15日

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  • Ana Paola Yusti-Muñoz,
  • Darío Moreira-Arce,
  • Diego A. Peñaranda,
  • Pablo M. Vergara,
  • Javier A. Simonetti

摘要

Livestock predation by carnivores drives global human-carnivore conflict. Non-lethal strategies like Livestock Guardian Dogs (LGDs) prove effective, yet their interactions with biophysical factors (e.g., habitats) and ecological variables (e.g., carnivore/prey abundance) remain poorly understood. This study evaluated whether LGD presence reduces sheep predation by Lycalopex foxes and how LGDs interact with biophysical/ecological variables shaping predation risk patterns, using Chilean Patagonia ranches as a model system. Using 2017–2018 predation data, we identified key landscape and species variables influencing risk (vegetation composition, nearest distance to road/farmstead, fox/hare abundance, LGD presence) via logistic regression on kill and random points from five ranches (two with LGDs, three without). We analyzed 94 fresh sheep carcasses killed by foxes: 26 in LGD ranches (0.77 sheep/ha) vs. 68 without LGDs (1.34 sheep/ha). Fox predation was lower with LGDs (χ2 = 4.90, p = 0.026). Models showed negative shrubland cover association and LGD × bareland × hare abundance interactions. With LGDs, risk declined with bareland and hare abundance; without LGDs, risk was unrelated to bareland but increased sharply with hare abundance. Mean predation probability was 0.26 (± 0.001), peaking at 0.39 (± 0.07) without LGDs. By mitigating risk factors, LGDs enhance landscape safety for livestock, reduce economic losses and lethal mesocarnivores control, supporting carnivore conservation in livestock-dominated landscapes.