Scholarlink

<p>Many children with provisional tic disorder (PTD) progress to chronic tics, but early risk stratification tools are lacking. In a prospective cohort of children with new-onset PTD, we developed a multivariable logistic regression model to predict 12-month progression to chronic tic disorders. The model was internally validated (bootstrap) and decision curve analysis was used to define risk thresholds. The final analytic cohort comprised 108 children. Three independent predictors of progression were identified: longer tic duration (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.18 per month, 95% CI: 1.01–1.38), higher parent tic questionnaire (PTQ) vocal score (aOR = 1.09 per point, 95% CI: 1.02–1.16), and presence of a comorbidity (aOR = 2.84, 95% CI: 1.01–8.02). A dual-threshold approach defined low- (&lt; 30%), intermediate- (30–56%), and high-risk (≥ 56%) strata. The high-risk group had a 70.5% progression rate (vs. 27.3% in low-risk), a relative risk of 2.58, and a number needed to intervene of 2.3. The model was translated into a nomogram, online calculator, and risk-stratified management pathway. We provide a preliminary risk-stratified management tool that may support proactive and resource-efficient care for children with new-onset tics.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

From prediction to action: developing a risk-stratified management tool for children with new-onset tic disorders

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月27日

查看全文
  • Yifang Qian,
  • Qinyu Li,
  • Hongjie Mao,
  • Rong Chen,
  • Jingrong Wang,
  • Yingying Cai,
  • Xiumei Liu

摘要

Many children with provisional tic disorder (PTD) progress to chronic tics, but early risk stratification tools are lacking. In a prospective cohort of children with new-onset PTD, we developed a multivariable logistic regression model to predict 12-month progression to chronic tic disorders. The model was internally validated (bootstrap) and decision curve analysis was used to define risk thresholds. The final analytic cohort comprised 108 children. Three independent predictors of progression were identified: longer tic duration (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.18 per month, 95% CI: 1.01–1.38), higher parent tic questionnaire (PTQ) vocal score (aOR = 1.09 per point, 95% CI: 1.02–1.16), and presence of a comorbidity (aOR = 2.84, 95% CI: 1.01–8.02). A dual-threshold approach defined low- (< 30%), intermediate- (30–56%), and high-risk (≥ 56%) strata. The high-risk group had a 70.5% progression rate (vs. 27.3% in low-risk), a relative risk of 2.58, and a number needed to intervene of 2.3. The model was translated into a nomogram, online calculator, and risk-stratified management pathway. We provide a preliminary risk-stratified management tool that may support proactive and resource-efficient care for children with new-onset tics.