<p>Although rural communities play a vital role in securing food supplies and hold the key to addressing many challenges faced by urban areas, the rural population in Iran-mirroring global trends-continues to decline. Existing evidence indicates that, despite the critical importance of rural infrastructure across multiple dimensions of sustainable rural development, the comprehensive impact of such infrastructure on rural population dynamics has received comparatively limited scholarly attention. Recognizing this research gap, the present study aims to identify the most influential categories of rural infrastructure and to model their effects on the population of rural settlements.This research draws on 37 infrastructural elements and is conducted as a case study of 263 villages in Saqqez County, located in Kurdistan Province. The required data were obtained from the Kurdistan Provincial Management and Planning Organization (using the latest Farhang-e Abadiha dataset from 2016) and through interviews with 30 key informants. Data analysis was performed using SPSS and Amos Graphics. The results of the exploratory factor analysis show that the most significant rural infrastructure components can be synthesized into nine major factors, which together explain 63.166% of the variance in the dependent variable. Correlation analysis between these factors and the rural population reveals that seven factors-namely Financial–Communication, Recreational, Security and Agriculture, Fundamental, Cultural and Service, Public Utility and Energy, and Vitality and Transportation and Sports-Beliefs-are positively and significantly associated with population levels. In contrast, the Religious and Sanitary factors show no statistically significant relationship. The key informants confirmed both the relevance of the nine identified factors and their thematic labels, although their perceived ranking of the most important infrastructural categories differed from that suggested by the exploratory factor analysis. Modeling the impact of the key infrastructure factors on rural settlement populations indicates a well-fitting structural model (<i>P</i> = 0.175; CMIN/DF = 1.378; RMR = 0.191; GFI = 0.986; NFI = 0.981; CFI = 0.995; PRATIO = 0.393; RMSEA = 0.038; HOELTER = 340). In the final model, the total effect (0.921) and the coefficient of determination (0.85) underscore the substantial and Significant association of rural infrastructure in being associated with patterns. Given the global tendency toward declining rural populations, the findings offer a valuable analytical framework that can be adapted by rural development planners and policymakers in similar regional contexts seeking to sustain population levels. It is therefore recommended that the identified key rural infrastructures be strengthened—both quantitatively and qualitatively—at the earliest opportunity and without delay.</p>

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Modeling the impact of rural infrastructure on the population of rural settlements: a case study of Saqqez County, Iran

  • Gangren Zhang,
  • Davood Jamini,
  • Hossein Komasi,
  • Ramin Atashbahar,
  • Moslem Savari,
  • Sahar Erfanian

摘要

Although rural communities play a vital role in securing food supplies and hold the key to addressing many challenges faced by urban areas, the rural population in Iran-mirroring global trends-continues to decline. Existing evidence indicates that, despite the critical importance of rural infrastructure across multiple dimensions of sustainable rural development, the comprehensive impact of such infrastructure on rural population dynamics has received comparatively limited scholarly attention. Recognizing this research gap, the present study aims to identify the most influential categories of rural infrastructure and to model their effects on the population of rural settlements.This research draws on 37 infrastructural elements and is conducted as a case study of 263 villages in Saqqez County, located in Kurdistan Province. The required data were obtained from the Kurdistan Provincial Management and Planning Organization (using the latest Farhang-e Abadiha dataset from 2016) and through interviews with 30 key informants. Data analysis was performed using SPSS and Amos Graphics. The results of the exploratory factor analysis show that the most significant rural infrastructure components can be synthesized into nine major factors, which together explain 63.166% of the variance in the dependent variable. Correlation analysis between these factors and the rural population reveals that seven factors-namely Financial–Communication, Recreational, Security and Agriculture, Fundamental, Cultural and Service, Public Utility and Energy, and Vitality and Transportation and Sports-Beliefs-are positively and significantly associated with population levels. In contrast, the Religious and Sanitary factors show no statistically significant relationship. The key informants confirmed both the relevance of the nine identified factors and their thematic labels, although their perceived ranking of the most important infrastructural categories differed from that suggested by the exploratory factor analysis. Modeling the impact of the key infrastructure factors on rural settlement populations indicates a well-fitting structural model (P = 0.175; CMIN/DF = 1.378; RMR = 0.191; GFI = 0.986; NFI = 0.981; CFI = 0.995; PRATIO = 0.393; RMSEA = 0.038; HOELTER = 340). In the final model, the total effect (0.921) and the coefficient of determination (0.85) underscore the substantial and Significant association of rural infrastructure in being associated with patterns. Given the global tendency toward declining rural populations, the findings offer a valuable analytical framework that can be adapted by rural development planners and policymakers in similar regional contexts seeking to sustain population levels. It is therefore recommended that the identified key rural infrastructures be strengthened—both quantitatively and qualitatively—at the earliest opportunity and without delay.