Scholarlink

<p>The Northeast Tiger and Leopard National Park is crucial for global biodiversity protection; yet, its environment is under considerable threat from climate change. The absence of a comprehensive grasp of future risk parameters by area managers may impede the development of effective adaptation solutions. This study utilized a “contrasting futures” climatic concept to tackle the issue of “decision uncertainty”. A hybrid statistical downscaling method was employed to downscale CMIP6 multi-model data to 0.1°, selecting two extreme scenarios under the SSP5-8.5 framework: “dry-hot” (EC-Earth3-Veg) and “warm-wet” (MIROC6). The research evaluated two bias correction techniques, quantile mapping (QDM) and random forest (RF), selecting the superior method to produce a high-confidence dataset for the analysis of extreme occurrences. The forecasts indicate that the park will undergo warming in both scenarios, yet the nature and dimensions of the threats vary: the “dry-hot” scenario suggests a substantial rise in temperature, with drought leading to habitat degradation and heightened wildfire risks; the “warm-wet” scenario intensifies ecological corridor disruption and geological disasters resulting from extreme precipitation. The analysis indicates that the regional effects of global climate change impacting the park present a twin threat of compounded drought and flood. The findings offer essential direction for enduring adaptive management and policy structures, highlighting the ineffectiveness of singular catastrophe response approaches and promoting versatile tactics that accommodate several scenarios to safeguard this prominent region.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

An examination of the complex climate risks and management approaches confronting the Northeast Tiger and Leopard National Park in the future

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月26日

查看全文
  • Yan Wu,
  • Xuan Liu,
  • Zhiqiang Zhao

摘要

The Northeast Tiger and Leopard National Park is crucial for global biodiversity protection; yet, its environment is under considerable threat from climate change. The absence of a comprehensive grasp of future risk parameters by area managers may impede the development of effective adaptation solutions. This study utilized a “contrasting futures” climatic concept to tackle the issue of “decision uncertainty”. A hybrid statistical downscaling method was employed to downscale CMIP6 multi-model data to 0.1°, selecting two extreme scenarios under the SSP5-8.5 framework: “dry-hot” (EC-Earth3-Veg) and “warm-wet” (MIROC6). The research evaluated two bias correction techniques, quantile mapping (QDM) and random forest (RF), selecting the superior method to produce a high-confidence dataset for the analysis of extreme occurrences. The forecasts indicate that the park will undergo warming in both scenarios, yet the nature and dimensions of the threats vary: the “dry-hot” scenario suggests a substantial rise in temperature, with drought leading to habitat degradation and heightened wildfire risks; the “warm-wet” scenario intensifies ecological corridor disruption and geological disasters resulting from extreme precipitation. The analysis indicates that the regional effects of global climate change impacting the park present a twin threat of compounded drought and flood. The findings offer essential direction for enduring adaptive management and policy structures, highlighting the ineffectiveness of singular catastrophe response approaches and promoting versatile tactics that accommodate several scenarios to safeguard this prominent region.