<p>While increasing vegetation productivity in dryland basins may mask declining functional resilience, we quantified drought impacts and post-drought recovery across the Yellow River Basin from 2001 to 2023. By integrating MODIS gross primary productivity, the 3-month Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and hydro-climatic covariates, this study characterized the spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystem resilience under a drought background without clear basin-wide alleviation. Although significant greening was detected across 72.2% of natural-vegetation sampling locations and basin-wide mean monthly GPP showed a positive long-term trend, there was no comparable basin-wide alleviation in the 3-month Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index drought conditions. Instantaneous drought impacts were also spatially heterogeneous: the Upstream showed both the most negative mean drought-month GPP<sub>Z</sub> anomaly and the most negative sampling-location-level minimum GPP<sub>Z</sub> during drought months. By contrast, the Midstream was more prominent in post-drought recovery constraints. Post-drought recovery trajectories showed pronounced spatial heterogeneity, with a basin-wide mean recovery time (RT) of 6.79 ± 2.21 months. We identified a distinct resilience bottleneck in the Midstream Loess Plateau, where the mean RT reached 7.44 ± 1.95 months, longer than the 5.27 ± 2.45 months observed in the Upstream source region. The positive correlation between RT and climatic water deficit (<i>r</i> = 0.423) supports a “Green Trap” interpretation, suggesting that structural greening may be associated with increased water stress and extended recovery periods. These empirical patterns indicate that productivity gains do not necessarily translate into enhanced stability, emphasizing the importance of aligning vegetation structure and restoration intensity with regional hydro-climatic limits to ensure long-term ecosystem resilience.</p>

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Drought impacts, recovery and legacy effects on vegetation productivity in the Yellow River Basin (2001–2023)

  • Qian Wan,
  • Peng Li,
  • Yongxiang Cao,
  • Heng Wu,
  • Kunming Lu,
  • Shixuan Zhou

摘要

While increasing vegetation productivity in dryland basins may mask declining functional resilience, we quantified drought impacts and post-drought recovery across the Yellow River Basin from 2001 to 2023. By integrating MODIS gross primary productivity, the 3-month Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and hydro-climatic covariates, this study characterized the spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystem resilience under a drought background without clear basin-wide alleviation. Although significant greening was detected across 72.2% of natural-vegetation sampling locations and basin-wide mean monthly GPP showed a positive long-term trend, there was no comparable basin-wide alleviation in the 3-month Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index drought conditions. Instantaneous drought impacts were also spatially heterogeneous: the Upstream showed both the most negative mean drought-month GPPZ anomaly and the most negative sampling-location-level minimum GPPZ during drought months. By contrast, the Midstream was more prominent in post-drought recovery constraints. Post-drought recovery trajectories showed pronounced spatial heterogeneity, with a basin-wide mean recovery time (RT) of 6.79 ± 2.21 months. We identified a distinct resilience bottleneck in the Midstream Loess Plateau, where the mean RT reached 7.44 ± 1.95 months, longer than the 5.27 ± 2.45 months observed in the Upstream source region. The positive correlation between RT and climatic water deficit (r = 0.423) supports a “Green Trap” interpretation, suggesting that structural greening may be associated with increased water stress and extended recovery periods. These empirical patterns indicate that productivity gains do not necessarily translate into enhanced stability, emphasizing the importance of aligning vegetation structure and restoration intensity with regional hydro-climatic limits to ensure long-term ecosystem resilience.