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<p>Urban gas infrastructure resilience is critical for public safety, yet rapidly expanding networks face increasing vulnerability. This study develops a system dynamics-based framework to identify key leverage points for enhancing gas infrastructure resilience in new urban districts. Using a three-tier indicator system of 32 risk factors across four dimensions, analytic hierarchy process weighting is integrated with system dynamics modeling in a case study of a new district in China. Sensitivity analysis reveals that system’s inherent resilience contributes most significantly, with the proportion of high-pressure pipelines exhibiting the highest sensitivity, followed by population-infrastructure spatial coupling and building seismic resistance. These findings demonstrate that planning-phase interventions targeting high-sensitivity indicators offer the most efficient pathway to enhancing urban gas infrastructure resilience, challenging conventional priorities that emphasize emergency response over foundational design considerations.</p>

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Risk-based sensitivity analysis of urban gas infrastructure in new district planning

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年5月25日

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  • Lei Gao,
  • Hao Liu,
  • Hui Lan,
  • Zhenyu Zhao,
  • Cui Li,
  • Ting Zhu

摘要

Urban gas infrastructure resilience is critical for public safety, yet rapidly expanding networks face increasing vulnerability. This study develops a system dynamics-based framework to identify key leverage points for enhancing gas infrastructure resilience in new urban districts. Using a three-tier indicator system of 32 risk factors across four dimensions, analytic hierarchy process weighting is integrated with system dynamics modeling in a case study of a new district in China. Sensitivity analysis reveals that system’s inherent resilience contributes most significantly, with the proportion of high-pressure pipelines exhibiting the highest sensitivity, followed by population-infrastructure spatial coupling and building seismic resistance. These findings demonstrate that planning-phase interventions targeting high-sensitivity indicators offer the most efficient pathway to enhancing urban gas infrastructure resilience, challenging conventional priorities that emphasize emergency response over foundational design considerations.