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<p>In India, the eligible bovine population has been subjected to mandatory biannual Foot-and-mouth Disease (FMD) vaccination since 2004–05 and year-round serosurveillance to control FMD. To evaluate the effectiveness of the vaccination-based control programme, post-vaccination seromonitoring has been implemented. Over time, key seromonitoring factors, including dilution, percentage inhibition, cut-offs, sampling design, and screening methods, have been modified as per the need, making it challenging to obtain a comprehensive and comparable assessment of seroconversion responses achieved through vaccination. In addition, there is a lack of computational frameworks for estimating population-level seroconversion parameters in routine FMD seromonitoring. Therefore, this study presents a computational approach and a software tool for estimating population-level seroconversion parameters and demonstrates its application in national FMD seromonitoring. Using this tool, national seroconversion proportions for 2022 were estimated as 28% (95% CI [23.15, 32.88]; CV: 8.86%) for the pre-vaccination phase and 67% (95% CI [52.43, 81.58]; CV: 11.1%) for the post-vaccination phase. The analysis further demonstrated a statistically significant effect of FMD vaccination on seroconversion responses (<i>p</i> value &lt; 0.001). The computational approach has been implemented as an R software package, <i>FMDSeroMonitor</i> (<a href="https://github.com/ICARNIFMD/FMDSeroMonitor">https://github.com/ICARNIFMD/FMDSeroMonitor</a>). A comprehensive analysis of FMD seromonitoring practices in India during 2006–2022 was also conducted, incorporating changes in monitoring factors using advanced statistical techniques. The findings indicate that variations in monitoring factors significantly influenced estimated seroconversion parameters and that national seroconversion trends followed approximately bell-shaped patterns. Furthermore, Bayesian causal impact analysis demonstrated the significant role of vaccination policy in enhancing herd immunity in the cattle population. In conclusion, the FMD vaccination programme in India has been effectively implemented, and the seromonitoring framework and proposed computational tool can substantially support animal disease control programmes.</p>

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Estimation of seroconversion and vaccination impact against FMD in India during 2006–2022 using survey sampling and Bayesian approaches

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月11日

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  • Samarendra Das,
  • Bighneswar Barik,
  • Saravanan Subramaniam,
  • Jajati Keshari Mohapatra,
  • Rabindra Prasad Singh

摘要

In India, the eligible bovine population has been subjected to mandatory biannual Foot-and-mouth Disease (FMD) vaccination since 2004–05 and year-round serosurveillance to control FMD. To evaluate the effectiveness of the vaccination-based control programme, post-vaccination seromonitoring has been implemented. Over time, key seromonitoring factors, including dilution, percentage inhibition, cut-offs, sampling design, and screening methods, have been modified as per the need, making it challenging to obtain a comprehensive and comparable assessment of seroconversion responses achieved through vaccination. In addition, there is a lack of computational frameworks for estimating population-level seroconversion parameters in routine FMD seromonitoring. Therefore, this study presents a computational approach and a software tool for estimating population-level seroconversion parameters and demonstrates its application in national FMD seromonitoring. Using this tool, national seroconversion proportions for 2022 were estimated as 28% (95% CI [23.15, 32.88]; CV: 8.86%) for the pre-vaccination phase and 67% (95% CI [52.43, 81.58]; CV: 11.1%) for the post-vaccination phase. The analysis further demonstrated a statistically significant effect of FMD vaccination on seroconversion responses (p value < 0.001). The computational approach has been implemented as an R software package, FMDSeroMonitor (https://github.com/ICARNIFMD/FMDSeroMonitor). A comprehensive analysis of FMD seromonitoring practices in India during 2006–2022 was also conducted, incorporating changes in monitoring factors using advanced statistical techniques. The findings indicate that variations in monitoring factors significantly influenced estimated seroconversion parameters and that national seroconversion trends followed approximately bell-shaped patterns. Furthermore, Bayesian causal impact analysis demonstrated the significant role of vaccination policy in enhancing herd immunity in the cattle population. In conclusion, the FMD vaccination programme in India has been effectively implemented, and the seromonitoring framework and proposed computational tool can substantially support animal disease control programmes.