<p>The accuracy of demand forecasting in the automotive spare parts industry is critical to operational efficiency and financial performance. However, the irregular nature of spare parts demand makes forecasting processes quite complex. As traditional forecasting methods are unable to model this complex demand structure, researchers have developed more advanced and adaptive forecasting approaches. This study presents a comprehensive analysis to forecast the demand for products with intermittent and lumpy demand structure, which play a crucial role in the company’s sales process and operations, using real data from a company in the automotive spare parts industry. In addition, the results of Croston-based methods, ML, and DL models are compared, and an innovative forecasting approach is presented that integrates the outputs of these models with the stacking ensemble learning method. Empirical results and statistical tests confirm that the stacking method outperforms other models in forecasting intermittent and lumpy demand, highlighting the value of ensemble learning and advanced models.</p>

错误:搜索内容不能为空,请输入英文关键词
错误:关键词超出字数限制,请精简
高级检索

An effective AI infused demand forecasting application for automotive spare parts industry: a real case from Turkey

  • Özge Albayrak Ünal,
  • Burak Erkayman,
  • Bilal Usanmaz

摘要

The accuracy of demand forecasting in the automotive spare parts industry is critical to operational efficiency and financial performance. However, the irregular nature of spare parts demand makes forecasting processes quite complex. As traditional forecasting methods are unable to model this complex demand structure, researchers have developed more advanced and adaptive forecasting approaches. This study presents a comprehensive analysis to forecast the demand for products with intermittent and lumpy demand structure, which play a crucial role in the company’s sales process and operations, using real data from a company in the automotive spare parts industry. In addition, the results of Croston-based methods, ML, and DL models are compared, and an innovative forecasting approach is presented that integrates the outputs of these models with the stacking ensemble learning method. Empirical results and statistical tests confirm that the stacking method outperforms other models in forecasting intermittent and lumpy demand, highlighting the value of ensemble learning and advanced models.