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<p>Optimizing urban form is a critical pathway for achieving low-carbon development, yet existing research often relies on linear assumptions, failing to capture the complex, stage-dependent dynamics of urban systems. This study constructs an Integrated Urban Form Index based on multidimensional indicators—compactness, connectivity, and complexity—and employs econometric models to investigate the non-linear impact of urban form on Total Factor Energy Efficiency. Empirical results confirm that the relationship follows a distinct S-shaped trajectory characterized by threshold effects, rather than a simple linear progression. The evolution of urban form is delineated into three dynamic regimes: a latent stage with limited impact, an acceleration stage with increasing marginal returns, and a saturation stage with diminishing benefits. Mechanism analysis reveals that transportation structure optimization and agglomeration economies serve as the dual drivers underpinning this evolution. Consequently, this study advocates for stage-adaptive planning strategies, suggesting that small and medium-sized cities focus on breaking through development thresholds, while large cities prioritize stock optimization and resilience enhancement to avoid high-carbon lock-in.</p>

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The nonlinear relationship between urban design form and energy efficiency

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月26日

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  • Shisheng Lyu,
  • Feng Yan

摘要

Optimizing urban form is a critical pathway for achieving low-carbon development, yet existing research often relies on linear assumptions, failing to capture the complex, stage-dependent dynamics of urban systems. This study constructs an Integrated Urban Form Index based on multidimensional indicators—compactness, connectivity, and complexity—and employs econometric models to investigate the non-linear impact of urban form on Total Factor Energy Efficiency. Empirical results confirm that the relationship follows a distinct S-shaped trajectory characterized by threshold effects, rather than a simple linear progression. The evolution of urban form is delineated into three dynamic regimes: a latent stage with limited impact, an acceleration stage with increasing marginal returns, and a saturation stage with diminishing benefits. Mechanism analysis reveals that transportation structure optimization and agglomeration economies serve as the dual drivers underpinning this evolution. Consequently, this study advocates for stage-adaptive planning strategies, suggesting that small and medium-sized cities focus on breaking through development thresholds, while large cities prioritize stock optimization and resilience enhancement to avoid high-carbon lock-in.