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<p>Rivers worldwide are facing an escalating risk of devastating floods driven by climate change, despite the extensive regulation of human infrastructures. Previous large-scale analyses of floods have reconstructed global and regional patterns by accounting for reservoir regulation; however, the critical role of levees remains largely ignored. Here, we provide a timely assessment of infrastructure-driven flood dynamics by simulating the joint influence of dams and levees across the Yangtze River Basin during 1980–2019 using the CaMa-Flood model. Results clarify the distinct and complementary roles of these structures: levees rectify peak-flow fidelity (median Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency 0.62 at 32 validated flow stations) while dams primarily enhance low-flow accuracy (median logNSE 0.71). Ignoring levees results in a ~ 15% overestimation of annual maximum inundation area relative to dam-only assessments. Despite parameterization uncertainties, this study provides the first insights highlighting the critical role of integrating levees to accurately simulate regulated river systems and flood risk assessments.</p>

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Compound effects of dams and levees reshape Yangtze flood dynamics and reveal substantial risk misestimations from ignoring levees

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月12日

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  • Shuyuan Xu,
  • Haodong Sun,
  • Lingyun Zhang,
  • Juan Han,
  • Ruikai Pan,
  • Liwen Yang,
  • Xinghua Xiang,
  • Li Tang

摘要

Rivers worldwide are facing an escalating risk of devastating floods driven by climate change, despite the extensive regulation of human infrastructures. Previous large-scale analyses of floods have reconstructed global and regional patterns by accounting for reservoir regulation; however, the critical role of levees remains largely ignored. Here, we provide a timely assessment of infrastructure-driven flood dynamics by simulating the joint influence of dams and levees across the Yangtze River Basin during 1980–2019 using the CaMa-Flood model. Results clarify the distinct and complementary roles of these structures: levees rectify peak-flow fidelity (median Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency 0.62 at 32 validated flow stations) while dams primarily enhance low-flow accuracy (median logNSE 0.71). Ignoring levees results in a ~ 15% overestimation of annual maximum inundation area relative to dam-only assessments. Despite parameterization uncertainties, this study provides the first insights highlighting the critical role of integrating levees to accurately simulate regulated river systems and flood risk assessments.