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<p><i>Populus qiongdaoensis</i> is a rare and endemic tree species exclusively located in Hainan Island, China, holding important value for species conservation and ecosystem function. However, its natural populations are threatened by habitat fragmentation and climate change. Based on 42 occurrence records and environmental data, we employed the MaxEnt model to predict the species’ suitable habitats, analyze the dominant environmental factors influencing its distribution, and assess changes under future climate scenarios (using the BCC-CSM2-MR model for the 2050s and 2090s under four SSP pathways). The results showed that elevation, mean temperature of the driest quarter (bio9), and precipitation seasonality (bio15) were the most crucial factors affecting its distribution. Currently, the suitable habitats are primarily located in the Bawangling and Wuzhishan mountain regions, covering approximately 9.6% of the island’s area. Under future scenarios, the total suitable habitat area is projected to increase by 7.4% to 34.2% across most projections. However, the area of highly suitable habitat is predicted to decrease notably under the low-emission scenario (SSP126) in the 2050s. Furthermore, the centroid of the species’ distribution is expected to shift northeastward over time, though remaining within the Wuzhishan region. This study delineates priority conservation areas and provides a critical scientific basis for the habitat protection, population restoration, and sustainable management of <i>P. qiongdaoensis</i> under climate change.</p>

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Predicting the impact of climate change on the suitable habitat of Populus qiongdaoensis in Hainan Island using MaxEnt modeling

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月29日

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  • Yang Tian,
  • Tong Zhang,
  • Qinuo Li,
  • Baochang Cheng,
  • Ruobing Wei,
  • Yong Zeng,
  • Jingkai Zhang,
  • Jianguo Zhang,
  • Zhaoshan Wang

摘要

Populus qiongdaoensis is a rare and endemic tree species exclusively located in Hainan Island, China, holding important value for species conservation and ecosystem function. However, its natural populations are threatened by habitat fragmentation and climate change. Based on 42 occurrence records and environmental data, we employed the MaxEnt model to predict the species’ suitable habitats, analyze the dominant environmental factors influencing its distribution, and assess changes under future climate scenarios (using the BCC-CSM2-MR model for the 2050s and 2090s under four SSP pathways). The results showed that elevation, mean temperature of the driest quarter (bio9), and precipitation seasonality (bio15) were the most crucial factors affecting its distribution. Currently, the suitable habitats are primarily located in the Bawangling and Wuzhishan mountain regions, covering approximately 9.6% of the island’s area. Under future scenarios, the total suitable habitat area is projected to increase by 7.4% to 34.2% across most projections. However, the area of highly suitable habitat is predicted to decrease notably under the low-emission scenario (SSP126) in the 2050s. Furthermore, the centroid of the species’ distribution is expected to shift northeastward over time, though remaining within the Wuzhishan region. This study delineates priority conservation areas and provides a critical scientific basis for the habitat protection, population restoration, and sustainable management of P. qiongdaoensis under climate change.