Scholarlink

<p>There is a clear international commitment to protect old-growth forests for their biodiversity and ecological functions. However, it remains unclear which particular solutions would best mitigate overall biodiversity loss given uncertainties about the future, and how to assess that. As an approach, we modelled and assessed the current and likely future habitat distribution of a conspicuous deadwood-inhabiting fungal species, <i>Anthoporia albobrunnea</i>, across Europe. We used spatial distribution modelling (MaxEnt) to predict the potential future distributions for alternative climatic and habitat shifts, and we used two distinct (‘cautious’ and ‘optimistic’) interpretations of those products by also considering current habitat protection. We found that, although the higher radiative forcing climate scenario (SSP5-8.5) reduced habitat more than the conservative SSP2-4.5, an even larger difference was caused by using or neglecting a precautionary approach while generalising from multiple scenarios. This difference would further increase when habitat-turnover estimates (primarily due to timber harvesting) are added. Our approach shows that simply incorporating the best technical knowledge is insufficient for improved forest conservation, as the outcomes of decision-making critically depend on how uncertainties are assessed during the process.</p>

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Assessment of multiple outcomes of habitat models can significantly affect conservation decisions for threatened species

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月20日

查看全文
  • Ovidiu Copot,
  • Asko Lõhmus

摘要

There is a clear international commitment to protect old-growth forests for their biodiversity and ecological functions. However, it remains unclear which particular solutions would best mitigate overall biodiversity loss given uncertainties about the future, and how to assess that. As an approach, we modelled and assessed the current and likely future habitat distribution of a conspicuous deadwood-inhabiting fungal species, Anthoporia albobrunnea, across Europe. We used spatial distribution modelling (MaxEnt) to predict the potential future distributions for alternative climatic and habitat shifts, and we used two distinct (‘cautious’ and ‘optimistic’) interpretations of those products by also considering current habitat protection. We found that, although the higher radiative forcing climate scenario (SSP5-8.5) reduced habitat more than the conservative SSP2-4.5, an even larger difference was caused by using or neglecting a precautionary approach while generalising from multiple scenarios. This difference would further increase when habitat-turnover estimates (primarily due to timber harvesting) are added. Our approach shows that simply incorporating the best technical knowledge is insufficient for improved forest conservation, as the outcomes of decision-making critically depend on how uncertainties are assessed during the process.