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<p>This study aims to analyse and predict the disease burden of occupational carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning in China and provide recommendations for its prevention and treatment. Based on the global disease burden2021 data, Joinpoint 5.0.2 software and R4.4.1 software were used to calculate the annual average percentage change (AAPC), 95% CI, and predict the disease burden of occupational CO poisoning in China in the next decade. The results show a decreasing trend in age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardised disability-adjusted life years (ASDR) from 2000 to 2021, with male rates consistently higher than female rates. Mortality and DALYs peak in 2021 in the 25–29 age group. ARIMA modelling projections indicate a further decline in ASMR and ASDR from 2022 to 2031. The decline in disease burden is likely to be due to advances in medical technology and improved efforts to prevent occupational diseases, but it remains higher than the global average and in several SDI regions .Further actions are needed to reduce the burden of occupational CO poisoning, including increasing the coverage of hyperbaric chambers in all regions, improving the efficiency of regulation of small and medium-sized enterprises, and strengthening CO safety training, especially for young male workers in high-risk industries.</p>

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Trend analysis and prediction of disease burden of occupational carbon monoxide poisoning in China based on the past two decades

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年4月29日

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  • Yao Xiao,
  • Chaocheng Wang,
  • Yu Du,
  • Qin Zhang,
  • LinShen Xie

摘要

This study aims to analyse and predict the disease burden of occupational carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning in China and provide recommendations for its prevention and treatment. Based on the global disease burden2021 data, Joinpoint 5.0.2 software and R4.4.1 software were used to calculate the annual average percentage change (AAPC), 95% CI, and predict the disease burden of occupational CO poisoning in China in the next decade. The results show a decreasing trend in age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardised disability-adjusted life years (ASDR) from 2000 to 2021, with male rates consistently higher than female rates. Mortality and DALYs peak in 2021 in the 25–29 age group. ARIMA modelling projections indicate a further decline in ASMR and ASDR from 2022 to 2031. The decline in disease burden is likely to be due to advances in medical technology and improved efforts to prevent occupational diseases, but it remains higher than the global average and in several SDI regions .Further actions are needed to reduce the burden of occupational CO poisoning, including increasing the coverage of hyperbaric chambers in all regions, improving the efficiency of regulation of small and medium-sized enterprises, and strengthening CO safety training, especially for young male workers in high-risk industries.