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<p>Climate change exerts heterogeneous impacts on regional flood extremes. This study focuses on the XF watershed (dominated by Meiyu) and HJT watershed (dominated by typhoons) in Zhejiang Province from 1964 to 2021. The Annual Maximum Flood (AMF) method and Peaks-Over-Threshold (POT) method were employed to analyze the differences in extreme flood characteristics before and after 1990. The results indicate that the Meiyu-dominated XF watershed shows stability: the 100-year design flood decreased by 2.3% using the AMF method and increased by 3.9% using the POT method. In contrast, the typhoon-dominated HJT watershed exhibits a decoupled response of “decreased frequency - amplified intensity”: the annual exceedance rate decreased from 1.885 to 1.808 events per year (a 4.1% reduction), while the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) scale parameter increased by 42.2%. There is a significant discrepancy in the estimated values between the two methods in the HJT watershed (AMF: +64.2%; POT: +7.0%), highlighting the vulnerability of the AMF method in highly variable systems. This study reveals the differentiated response patterns of floods to climate change under different rainfall mechanisms, providing a scientific basis for regional flood control planning and risk management.</p>

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Comparative analysis of flood characteristic changes under Meiyu and typhoon rainfall in Zhejiang Province, China (1964–2021)

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月11日

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  • Jing-Lin Qian,
  • Yun-Xin Wu,
  • Zhu-Sheng Qian

摘要

Climate change exerts heterogeneous impacts on regional flood extremes. This study focuses on the XF watershed (dominated by Meiyu) and HJT watershed (dominated by typhoons) in Zhejiang Province from 1964 to 2021. The Annual Maximum Flood (AMF) method and Peaks-Over-Threshold (POT) method were employed to analyze the differences in extreme flood characteristics before and after 1990. The results indicate that the Meiyu-dominated XF watershed shows stability: the 100-year design flood decreased by 2.3% using the AMF method and increased by 3.9% using the POT method. In contrast, the typhoon-dominated HJT watershed exhibits a decoupled response of “decreased frequency - amplified intensity”: the annual exceedance rate decreased from 1.885 to 1.808 events per year (a 4.1% reduction), while the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) scale parameter increased by 42.2%. There is a significant discrepancy in the estimated values between the two methods in the HJT watershed (AMF: +64.2%; POT: +7.0%), highlighting the vulnerability of the AMF method in highly variable systems. This study reveals the differentiated response patterns of floods to climate change under different rainfall mechanisms, providing a scientific basis for regional flood control planning and risk management.