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<p>Net Primary Productivity (NPP) is a key indicator of terrestrial ecosystem functioning and a major regulator of the global carbon cycle. Yet, its interannual fluctuations and seasonal drivers remain unclear. Using Theil-Sen trend analysis, Mann-Kendall test, R/S analysis, and the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) model, this study examined the spatiotemporal dynamics and driving mechanisms of seasonal NPP in the Huaihe River Economic Belt from 2010 to 2021. Results show a general upward trend across all seasons, with the strongest increase in winter. Spatially, NPP decreased from southeast to northwest, with coastal high-value areas contracting seasonally and distinct differences between mountainous and hilly regions. Seasonal patterns revealed clear heterogeneity: spring, summer, and autumn were dominated by stability or improvement with localized degradation, while winter displayed a stable north-south differentiation. Soil moisture emerged as the dominant driver, with multiple factors exerting synergistic effects on seasonal NPP dynamics. This study provides scientific insights to support ecological management and the pursuit of carbon neutrality in the Huaihe River Economic Belt.</p>

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Spatial temporal variation characteristics and driving factors of net primary productivity in the Huaihe River Economic Belt on seasonal scale

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月29日

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  • Jiqiang Niu,
  • Ziyu Wang,
  • A Sediyo Adi Nugraha,
  • Hao Lin,
  • Feng Xu,
  • Luying Huang,
  • Xuan Zhu

摘要

Net Primary Productivity (NPP) is a key indicator of terrestrial ecosystem functioning and a major regulator of the global carbon cycle. Yet, its interannual fluctuations and seasonal drivers remain unclear. Using Theil-Sen trend analysis, Mann-Kendall test, R/S analysis, and the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) model, this study examined the spatiotemporal dynamics and driving mechanisms of seasonal NPP in the Huaihe River Economic Belt from 2010 to 2021. Results show a general upward trend across all seasons, with the strongest increase in winter. Spatially, NPP decreased from southeast to northwest, with coastal high-value areas contracting seasonally and distinct differences between mountainous and hilly regions. Seasonal patterns revealed clear heterogeneity: spring, summer, and autumn were dominated by stability or improvement with localized degradation, while winter displayed a stable north-south differentiation. Soil moisture emerged as the dominant driver, with multiple factors exerting synergistic effects on seasonal NPP dynamics. This study provides scientific insights to support ecological management and the pursuit of carbon neutrality in the Huaihe River Economic Belt.