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<p>We investigate the relationship between the cumulative number of earthquakes and ground uplift at the Campi Flegrei caldera (South Italy) during the ongoing unrest (2005-present). While previous studies have explored this correlation, we propose a nonlinear epidemic model that captures new features of the caldera system. Our model describes earthquakes’ occurrence as a cascading process driven by ground deformation. The nonlinearity reflects the reduced efficiency of the triggering mechanism, which contributes to the short duration of seismic swarms. This mechanism may represent a general framework for understanding the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes worldwide.</p>

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Interplay between ground deformation and seismicity during the 2005–2025 unrest at Campi Flegrei

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月5日

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  • Cataldo Godano,
  • Vincenzo Convertito,
  • Anna Tramelli,
  • Giuseppe Petrillo

摘要

We investigate the relationship between the cumulative number of earthquakes and ground uplift at the Campi Flegrei caldera (South Italy) during the ongoing unrest (2005-present). While previous studies have explored this correlation, we propose a nonlinear epidemic model that captures new features of the caldera system. Our model describes earthquakes’ occurrence as a cascading process driven by ground deformation. The nonlinearity reflects the reduced efficiency of the triggering mechanism, which contributes to the short duration of seismic swarms. This mechanism may represent a general framework for understanding the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes worldwide.