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<p>Global warming is intensifying heat risks globally, yet understanding of these rising risks on a global scale remains limited. We introduce a standardized heat-sensitivity indicator (ΔRR)—the change in relative risk (RR) per 1&#xa0;°C above the minimum mortality temperature (MMT)—which enables like-for-like comparisons across heterogeneous city studies. Using ΔRR, we quantify how sensitively heat-related mortality responds to incremental warming rather than only to extremes. This study reveals that over a latitude of around 40°N, development inequality disrupts the patterns of heat risk variability, and high-risk cities primarily cluster in ranges with temperatures between 10&#xa0;°C and 22&#xa0;°C. These findings emphasize the urgent need for more focus on cities in temperate zones. Our results also position ΔRR as a transferable metric for global surveillance, comparison, and planning of heat-health adaptation.</p>

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A standardized indicator reveals sharper increases in heat related mortality in temperate zone cities worldwide

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月5日

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  • Ying Liang,
  • Xuan Wang,
  • Lei Ma,
  • Guangjun He,
  • Heng Lu

摘要

Global warming is intensifying heat risks globally, yet understanding of these rising risks on a global scale remains limited. We introduce a standardized heat-sensitivity indicator (ΔRR)—the change in relative risk (RR) per 1 °C above the minimum mortality temperature (MMT)—which enables like-for-like comparisons across heterogeneous city studies. Using ΔRR, we quantify how sensitively heat-related mortality responds to incremental warming rather than only to extremes. This study reveals that over a latitude of around 40°N, development inequality disrupts the patterns of heat risk variability, and high-risk cities primarily cluster in ranges with temperatures between 10 °C and 22 °C. These findings emphasize the urgent need for more focus on cities in temperate zones. Our results also position ΔRR as a transferable metric for global surveillance, comparison, and planning of heat-health adaptation.