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<p><i>Liriomyza sativae</i> is a significant agricultural pest globally, inflicting damage on a wide array of crops and spreading at alarming rates. Our study aims to thoroughly investigate the potential habitat of this pest in China under varying climate change scenarios. Here, the MaxEnt model was employed to predict current and future potential suitable habitat for <i>L. sativae</i> in China, based on 102 distribution points and 7 key environmental variables. The test set’s average AUC was 0.895 with a standard deviation of 0.014, indicating accurate and reliable simulation results. Jackknife analysis revealed that annual mean temperature (Bio01), precipitation seasonality (Bio15), and precipitation of wettest quarter (Bio16) have the most significant impacts on the potential geographical habitat of <i>L. sativae</i>. Under current climate conditions, this pest posed a potential threat to all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities in China, with a total area of potential suitable habitats of 540.8×10<sup>4</sup> km<sup>2</sup>. The highly suitable habitats are predominantly distributed across North China, Central China, East China, and South China, along with the southern regions of Northeast China, covering an area of 288.2×10<sup>4</sup> km<sup>2</sup>. Compared to the current climate scenario, the proliferation of suitable habitats for <i>L. sativae</i> in the 2050s and 2070s is notably focalized, demonstrating a trend of expansion towards the northeast and southwest regions of our country. This amplification of suitable habitats is primarily observed in Tibet, Qinghai, western Sichuan, the northern segment of Heilongjiang Province, and the northeastern section of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. Conversely, areas experiencing a reduction in suitable habitats are comparatively dispersed, exhibiting substantial disparities in the extent of reduction across various regions. These reductions are notably present in Xinjiang, Gansu, Tibet, Shaanxi, Hubei, Hunan, Chongqing, Yunnan, and Sichuan. Our results demonstrated that future climate change would lead to varied degrees of influence on <i>L. sativae</i> among different regions of China. This study analyzed the potential habitat of this pest under current and future climate conditions, providing insights into effective prevention, control strategies, and management policies to mitigate agricultural threats from this species.</p>

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Prediction of potential suitable habitats for Liriomyza sativae blanchard in China under climate change scenarios

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月3日

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  • Qinwen Hou,
  • Gaopeng Bian,
  • Shan Jin,
  • Huifang Song,
  • Haiyan Bai

摘要

Liriomyza sativae is a significant agricultural pest globally, inflicting damage on a wide array of crops and spreading at alarming rates. Our study aims to thoroughly investigate the potential habitat of this pest in China under varying climate change scenarios. Here, the MaxEnt model was employed to predict current and future potential suitable habitat for L. sativae in China, based on 102 distribution points and 7 key environmental variables. The test set’s average AUC was 0.895 with a standard deviation of 0.014, indicating accurate and reliable simulation results. Jackknife analysis revealed that annual mean temperature (Bio01), precipitation seasonality (Bio15), and precipitation of wettest quarter (Bio16) have the most significant impacts on the potential geographical habitat of L. sativae. Under current climate conditions, this pest posed a potential threat to all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities in China, with a total area of potential suitable habitats of 540.8×104 km2. The highly suitable habitats are predominantly distributed across North China, Central China, East China, and South China, along with the southern regions of Northeast China, covering an area of 288.2×104 km2. Compared to the current climate scenario, the proliferation of suitable habitats for L. sativae in the 2050s and 2070s is notably focalized, demonstrating a trend of expansion towards the northeast and southwest regions of our country. This amplification of suitable habitats is primarily observed in Tibet, Qinghai, western Sichuan, the northern segment of Heilongjiang Province, and the northeastern section of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. Conversely, areas experiencing a reduction in suitable habitats are comparatively dispersed, exhibiting substantial disparities in the extent of reduction across various regions. These reductions are notably present in Xinjiang, Gansu, Tibet, Shaanxi, Hubei, Hunan, Chongqing, Yunnan, and Sichuan. Our results demonstrated that future climate change would lead to varied degrees of influence on L. sativae among different regions of China. This study analyzed the potential habitat of this pest under current and future climate conditions, providing insights into effective prevention, control strategies, and management policies to mitigate agricultural threats from this species.