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<p>Previous studies have demonstrated that individuals can utilize the wisdom of crowds, known as ‘the wisdom of the inner crowd’. This requires answering the same question multiple times and averaging the estimates. Although several methods have been proposed to achieve more accurate estimates, its efficacy remains relatively low. Therefore, this study proposes a method that assembles multiple independent methods to simulate the wisdom of the inner crowd effect. Particularly, our method instructs participants to provide estimates five times. Through a behavioural experiment, we confirmed that our method can produce the wisdom-of-innercrowd effect. Moreover, we found that our method produced more accurate estimates than a method that required participants to estimate five times without specific instructions. Furthermore, mathematical modelling demonstrated that the effectiveness of our method was greater than that of 1.5 persons. In sum, this study proposes a method to improve daily estimates.</p>

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An ensemble method utilising multiple thinking styles that boosts the wisdom-of-inner-crowd effect

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月21日

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  • Itsuki Fujisaki,
  • Lingxi Yu,
  • Yuki Tsukamura,
  • Kunhao Yang,
  • Kazuhiro Ueda

摘要

Previous studies have demonstrated that individuals can utilize the wisdom of crowds, known as ‘the wisdom of the inner crowd’. This requires answering the same question multiple times and averaging the estimates. Although several methods have been proposed to achieve more accurate estimates, its efficacy remains relatively low. Therefore, this study proposes a method that assembles multiple independent methods to simulate the wisdom of the inner crowd effect. Particularly, our method instructs participants to provide estimates five times. Through a behavioural experiment, we confirmed that our method can produce the wisdom-of-innercrowd effect. Moreover, we found that our method produced more accurate estimates than a method that required participants to estimate five times without specific instructions. Furthermore, mathematical modelling demonstrated that the effectiveness of our method was greater than that of 1.5 persons. In sum, this study proposes a method to improve daily estimates.