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<p>Land use scenario modelling with multi-criteria evaluation is an important tool for identifying integrated solutions to challenges such as biodiversity loss, climate change, and food production. Ideally, such models should identify efficient solutions from a large set of potential futures. Here, we generate 10,000 random future land use pathways for the UK, with each pathway deploying a randomly-drawn quantity of eight land-based climate change mitigation measures. We show that there are multiple paths to a net zero UK land sector, with wide-ranging impacts on food production and habitat availability for breeding birds. Whilst trade-offs are inherent, we identify pathways which are more efficient than a previous exercise which considered a more limited set of futures. We also explore the consequences of achieving efficiency at different spatial or governance scales, showing that whilst UK-scale decision-making is slightly more efficient, it results in less equitable outcomes than decision-making at devolved nation scales.</p>

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Randomised land use pathway generation allows efficient multi-outcome appraisal

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月23日

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  • Joshua P. Copping,
  • Richard B. Bradbury,
  • Rob H. Field,
  • Tom Finch

摘要

Land use scenario modelling with multi-criteria evaluation is an important tool for identifying integrated solutions to challenges such as biodiversity loss, climate change, and food production. Ideally, such models should identify efficient solutions from a large set of potential futures. Here, we generate 10,000 random future land use pathways for the UK, with each pathway deploying a randomly-drawn quantity of eight land-based climate change mitigation measures. We show that there are multiple paths to a net zero UK land sector, with wide-ranging impacts on food production and habitat availability for breeding birds. Whilst trade-offs are inherent, we identify pathways which are more efficient than a previous exercise which considered a more limited set of futures. We also explore the consequences of achieving efficiency at different spatial or governance scales, showing that whilst UK-scale decision-making is slightly more efficient, it results in less equitable outcomes than decision-making at devolved nation scales.