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<p>Though average global temperature is expected to continue to rise, not all areas will experience the same temperature changes. Identifying and understanding which regions will undergo more warming than others is an important factor for adaptation and response measures. Daily maximum temperature is a key metric as it strongly correlates to human health, physical hazards, and economic outcomes. We generate global warming-attributed trends in monthly-averaged maximum daily temperature across all states in the United States using linear regressions, with data drawn from the MERRA2 and ERA5 reanalysis datasets. Comparing which states and months experience stronger warming trends, the distribution is highly heterogenous, with sparse significant trends in February and May giving way to significant warming trends throughout the summer and fall months, especially September and November. Over the course of the year, Alaska, Utah, New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada have the highest average warming trends, while Hawaii, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Arkansas have the lowest. The dataset produced in this work assists in identifying the regions most impacted by global warming, enabling policymakers to triage those states that have experienced the most drastic extreme-temperature increases.</p>

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A State-Averaged Dataset of Maximum, Mean, and Minimum Temperatures and Trends across the United States

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月25日

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  • Kenneth L. Cox,
  • C. Adam Schlosser,
  • Jennifer Morris,
  • Xiang Gao

摘要

Though average global temperature is expected to continue to rise, not all areas will experience the same temperature changes. Identifying and understanding which regions will undergo more warming than others is an important factor for adaptation and response measures. Daily maximum temperature is a key metric as it strongly correlates to human health, physical hazards, and economic outcomes. We generate global warming-attributed trends in monthly-averaged maximum daily temperature across all states in the United States using linear regressions, with data drawn from the MERRA2 and ERA5 reanalysis datasets. Comparing which states and months experience stronger warming trends, the distribution is highly heterogenous, with sparse significant trends in February and May giving way to significant warming trends throughout the summer and fall months, especially September and November. Over the course of the year, Alaska, Utah, New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada have the highest average warming trends, while Hawaii, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Arkansas have the lowest. The dataset produced in this work assists in identifying the regions most impacted by global warming, enabling policymakers to triage those states that have experienced the most drastic extreme-temperature increases.