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<p>A licensed chikungunya vaccine now exists; however, it remains unclear whether it could be deployed during outbreaks to reduce the health burden. We used an epidemic in Paraguay as a case study. We conducted a seroprevalence study and used models to reconstruct epidemic transmission dynamics, providing a framework to assess the theoretical impact of a vaccine had it been available. We estimated that 33.0% (95% confidence interval (CI) 30.1–36.0%) of the population became infected during the outbreak. Of these individuals, 6.3% (95% CI 5.8–6.9%) were detected by the surveillance system, with a mean infection fatality ratio of 0.013% (95% CI 0.012–0.014%). A disease-blocking vaccine with 75% efficacy deployed in 40% of individuals aged ≥12 years over a 3-month period would have prevented 34,200 (95% CI 30,900–38,000) cases, representing 23% of all cases, and 73 (95% CI 66–81) deaths. If the vaccine also leads to infection blocking, 88% of cases would have been averted. These findings suggest that the vaccine is an important new tool to control outbreaks.</p>

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Modeling the impact of vaccine campaigns on the epidemic transmission dynamics of chikungunya virus outbreaks

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年5月1日

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  • Pastor E. Pérez-Estigarribia,
  • Gabriel Ribeiro dos Santos,
  • Simon Cauchemez,
  • Cynthia Vazquez,
  • Ana Karina Ibarrola-Vannucci,
  • Guillermo Sequera,
  • Shirley Villalba,
  • María José Ortega,
  • Jose Luis Di Fabio,
  • Danny Scarponi,
  • Christinah Mukandavire,
  • Arminder Deol,
  • Águeda Cabello,
  • Elsi Vargas,
  • Cyntia Fernández,
  • Liz León,
  • Henrik Salje

摘要

A licensed chikungunya vaccine now exists; however, it remains unclear whether it could be deployed during outbreaks to reduce the health burden. We used an epidemic in Paraguay as a case study. We conducted a seroprevalence study and used models to reconstruct epidemic transmission dynamics, providing a framework to assess the theoretical impact of a vaccine had it been available. We estimated that 33.0% (95% confidence interval (CI) 30.1–36.0%) of the population became infected during the outbreak. Of these individuals, 6.3% (95% CI 5.8–6.9%) were detected by the surveillance system, with a mean infection fatality ratio of 0.013% (95% CI 0.012–0.014%). A disease-blocking vaccine with 75% efficacy deployed in 40% of individuals aged ≥12 years over a 3-month period would have prevented 34,200 (95% CI 30,900–38,000) cases, representing 23% of all cases, and 73 (95% CI 66–81) deaths. If the vaccine also leads to infection blocking, 88% of cases would have been averted. These findings suggest that the vaccine is an important new tool to control outbreaks.