<p>Ocean net primary production fixes dissolved carbon into organic matter while producing O<sub>2</sub>, driving the biological carbon pump that contributes to ocean CO<sub>2</sub> uptake. The Southern Ocean plays a critical role in carbon export, yet its productivity estimates remain highly uncertain due to limited observations. Here we constrain Southern Ocean (south of ~44° S) net primary production by linking Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6)-modelled productivity to modelled air–sea O<sub>2</sub> fluxes and applying O<sub>2</sub> flux estimates derived from airborne O<sub>2</sub>/N<sub>2</sub> observations. We find an annual net primary production of 6.5 ± 1.36 PgC yr<sup>−1</sup>, substantially higher than most CMIP6 model and satellite-based estimates, but consistent with Argo oxygen-based estimates. We show that CMIP6 models with underestimated productivity exhibit weak summer CO<sub>2</sub> uptake, with some also showing excessive summer temperature-driven outgassing. Together, these models produce incorrect seasonal CO<sub>2</sub> flux cycles with summer outgassing, whereas observation-based estimates indicate summer uptake. These errors may stem from inadequate model representation of ocean vertical mixing, which affects nutrient supply, stratification and heat redistribution. Our productivity estimates provide quantitative benchmarks that, combined with constraints from airborne CO<sub>2</sub> observations and surface ocean pCO<sub>2</sub> and temperature observations, reduce uncertainty in estimates of model-projected end-of-century Southern Ocean CO<sub>2</sub> uptake by 53%.</p>

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Atmospheric oxygen constraints on Southern Ocean productivity and drivers of carbon uptake

  • Yuming Jin,
  • Britton B. Stephens,
  • Matthew C. Long,
  • Manfredi Manizza,
  • Nicole S. Lovenduski,
  • Cynthia Nevison,
  • Eric J. Morgan,
  • Ralph F. Keeling

摘要

Ocean net primary production fixes dissolved carbon into organic matter while producing O2, driving the biological carbon pump that contributes to ocean CO2 uptake. The Southern Ocean plays a critical role in carbon export, yet its productivity estimates remain highly uncertain due to limited observations. Here we constrain Southern Ocean (south of ~44° S) net primary production by linking Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6)-modelled productivity to modelled air–sea O2 fluxes and applying O2 flux estimates derived from airborne O2/N2 observations. We find an annual net primary production of 6.5 ± 1.36 PgC yr−1, substantially higher than most CMIP6 model and satellite-based estimates, but consistent with Argo oxygen-based estimates. We show that CMIP6 models with underestimated productivity exhibit weak summer CO2 uptake, with some also showing excessive summer temperature-driven outgassing. Together, these models produce incorrect seasonal CO2 flux cycles with summer outgassing, whereas observation-based estimates indicate summer uptake. These errors may stem from inadequate model representation of ocean vertical mixing, which affects nutrient supply, stratification and heat redistribution. Our productivity estimates provide quantitative benchmarks that, combined with constraints from airborne CO2 observations and surface ocean pCO2 and temperature observations, reduce uncertainty in estimates of model-projected end-of-century Southern Ocean CO2 uptake by 53%.