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<p>Deep decarbonization through weather-dependent wind and solar can introduce resource adequacy risks. Climate change compounds these risks by simultaneously reshaping renewable supply and electricity demand in synergistic, region-specific ways. Here we show that long-term adequacy challenges in decarbonized grids arise from the interplay between meteorological conditions and system design, driven by prolonged renewable generation shortfalls tied to fine-scale infrastructure siting choices. Using 12-km climate projections with county-level power system optimization for New England and Texas, we find that climate change can increase resource inadequacy frequency up to fivefold by mid-century as rising cooling demand intersects with renewable resource declines or transmission bottlenecks. However, climate-informed planning provides cost-effective mitigation: Texas maintains adequacy at near-zero cost by pivoting wind capacity westward, while New England requires a modest 2.34% investment increase via solar and transmission expansion near load centres. Our findings demonstrate that achieving climate-resilient, decarbonized grids requires moving beyond aggregate capacity goals towards high-resolution, climate-informed spatial planning that reveals localized siting opportunities.</p>

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Climate change reshapes resource adequacy risks and optimal renewable energy siting in wind and solar energy systems

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月16日

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  • Liying Qiu,
  • Rahman Khorramfar,
  • Shen Wang,
  • Saurabh Amin,
  • Michael F. Howland

摘要

Deep decarbonization through weather-dependent wind and solar can introduce resource adequacy risks. Climate change compounds these risks by simultaneously reshaping renewable supply and electricity demand in synergistic, region-specific ways. Here we show that long-term adequacy challenges in decarbonized grids arise from the interplay between meteorological conditions and system design, driven by prolonged renewable generation shortfalls tied to fine-scale infrastructure siting choices. Using 12-km climate projections with county-level power system optimization for New England and Texas, we find that climate change can increase resource inadequacy frequency up to fivefold by mid-century as rising cooling demand intersects with renewable resource declines or transmission bottlenecks. However, climate-informed planning provides cost-effective mitigation: Texas maintains adequacy at near-zero cost by pivoting wind capacity westward, while New England requires a modest 2.34% investment increase via solar and transmission expansion near load centres. Our findings demonstrate that achieving climate-resilient, decarbonized grids requires moving beyond aggregate capacity goals towards high-resolution, climate-informed spatial planning that reveals localized siting opportunities.